Monthly maximum power load forecasting method and apparatus

A technology of maximum power and load forecasting, applied in forecasting, electrical digital data processing, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as strong subjective dependence, lack of guidance, long calculation time, etc., to solve the problem of limited sample size, improve forecasting accuracy, reduce The effect of operational risk

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-03-22
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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  • Abstract
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0013] The artificial neural network algorithm has a large application market, but there are also many shortcomings: such as slow convergence, easy to fall into a local minimum state; the network structure is determined, lacks effective guidance, strong subjective dependence, is too complicated, and takes a long time to calculate Wait

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  • Monthly maximum power load forecasting method and apparatus
  • Monthly maximum power load forecasting method and apparatus
  • Monthly maximum power load forecasting method and apparatus

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Embodiment Construction

[0104] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0105] The main terms that the present invention relates to are as follows:

[0106] Power load: In the power system, the electric power required by electrical equipment is called power load or power.

[0107] Power load forecasting: Power load forecasting is based on many factors such as system operating characteristics, capacity increase decisions, natural conditions and social influences, and under the condition of meeting certain accuracy requirements, the...

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Abstract

The invention provides a monthly maximum power load forecasting method and apparatus. The monthly maximum power load forecasting method includes the steps: acquiring the real time load data, daily maximum load data, and monthly maximum power load data of each year from a historical database; and according to the monthly maximum power load data, establishing a link relative ratio increment forecasting model or a link relative ratio growth rate forecasting model, and carrying out monthly maximum power load data forecasting. By means of the monthly maximum power load forecasting method and apparatus, the forecasting accuracy can be improved, so that the operation risk for a power plant and a power grid can be reduced. The monthly maximum power load forecasting method and apparatus have the advantages of being less in data bulk, being high in operation speed and solving the problem that the sample size is limited.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to monthly maximum power load forecasting technology, in particular to a monthly maximum power load forecasting method and device based on monthly increments. Background technique [0002] The monthly maximum power load forecast is mainly used for power system planning and power generation planning, and can also be used for system adequacy assessment, power generation contract formulation, contract power distribution, power price forecast, real-time dispatch, etc., so as to improve the economy and reliability of system operation sex. With the development of my country's electric power industry, monthly maximum power load forecasting plays an increasingly important role in power system planning and operation. The monthly maximum power load forecast is essentially the forecast of the electricity market demand. Therefore, the research on the monthly maximum power load forecast has become one of the important topics in the mo...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/30
CPCG06F16/2462G06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y02D10/00
Inventor 傅军许鑫朱天博周辛南王畅介志毅孙志杰汤佩霖
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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