Reservoir group adaptability scheduling method based on RCP

Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir group adaptability scheduling method based on an RCP. The method comprises the steps that a soil and water assessment tool (SWCP) hydrological model is driven by meteorological data in the global climate mode under representative concentration pathways (RCP) to predict a future runoff process; the basic information of reservoirs is acquired to establish a reservoir group adaptive scheduling model; the predicted future runoff under the RCP is used as the input of the adaptive scheduling model; and a chaos shuffled frog leaping algorithm (CSFLA) is carried out to determine a reservoir group adaptive scheduling policy. According to the invention, future runoff prediction of a drainage basin can be realized based on the RCP; a reservoir group optimal scheduling model adapting to power generation, flood control, ecology and other targets under the RCP is constructed and solved; the reservoir group adaptive scheduling policy which copes with the climate change is provided; and the method can be widely used in the practice of reservoir group scheduling production.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an adaptive scheduling method for reservoir groups based on RCP (typical concentration path) scenarios, and belongs to the technical field of reservoir scheduling in the field of water conservancy and hydropower. Background technique [0002] Climate change, mainly caused by global warming, is a hot spot of concern around the world. The fifth IPCC assessment report pointed out that the global surface temperature increased by about 0.85°C from 1880 to 2012, and it is estimated that by 2100, the global average temperature will rise by 1.1°C to 6.4°C. Climate change will change the status quo of the global hydrological cycle, cause the redistribution of water resources in time and space, and have a direct impact on precipitation, evaporation, runoff, soil moisture, etc. For current and future water resource planning and management, the study of runoff Response to climate change and adaptive reservoir management are critical. The...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, there are relatively few studies on regional climate change trends based on RCP scenarios in my country. The research on the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources under RCP scenarios basically follows the model of "RCP scenario design-hydrological model-impact assessment"

At the same time, the research results on the adaptive management of reservoir groups are not yet rich, and the quantitative research on the operation and management of reservoir groups under the condition of climate change is still in its infancy, especially the adaptive operation of reservoir groups based on the RCP scenario has not yet been studied.

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