An adaptive scheduling method for reservoir groups based on rcp scenarios

Abstract

The invention discloses an adaptive scheduling method for reservoir groups based on an RCP scenario. The steps are as follows: firstly, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is driven by meteorological data of a global climate model under a typical concentration path (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP) scenario. , SWAT) hydrological model to predict the future runoff process; secondly, the basic information of the reservoirs is obtained, and the adaptive scheduling model of the reservoir group is established; finally, the predicted future runoff under the RCP scenario is used as the input of the adaptive scheduling model, and the Chaos Shuffled Leaping Algorithm (Chaos Shuffled Leaping Algorithm) is executed frog leaping algorithm, CSFLA) to determine the adaptive regulation strategy of the reservoir group. The present invention can realize the future runoff prediction of the watershed based on the RCP scenario, build and solve the optimal scheduling model of the reservoir group adaptive to the RCP scenario for power generation, flood control, and ecology, and propose an adaptive scheduling strategy for the reservoir group to cope with climate change. It can be widely used in the production practice of reservoir group dispatching.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an adaptive scheduling method for reservoir groups based on RCP (typical concentration path) scenarios, and belongs to the technical field of reservoir scheduling in the field of water conservancy and hydropower. Background technique [0002] Climate change, mainly caused by global warming, is a hot spot of concern around the world. The fifth IPCC assessment report pointed out that the global surface temperature increased by about 0.85°C from 1880 to 2012, and it is estimated that by 2100, the global average temperature will rise by 1.1°C to 6.4°C. Climate change will change the status quo of the global hydrological cycle, cause the redistribution of water resources in time and space, and have a direct impact on precipitation, evaporation, runoff, soil moisture, etc. For current and future water resource planning and management, the study of runoff Response to climate change and adaptive reservoir management are critical. The...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, there are relatively few studies on regional climate change trends based on RCP scenarios in my country. The research on the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources under RCP scenarios basically follows the model of "RCP scenario design-hydrological model-impact assessment"

At the same time, the research results on the adaptive management of reservoir groups are not yet rich, and the quantitative research on the operation and management of reservoir groups under the condition of climate change is still in its infancy, especially the adaptive operation of reservoir groups based on the RCP scenario has not yet been studied.

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