Reservoir group outlet structure failure assessment method based on Bayesian network

A technology of Bayesian network and drainage structures, which is applied in the field of failure assessment of drainage structures of reservoir groups, can solve problems that are difficult to analyze and express, and difficult to describe the relationship between them, and achieve the effect of perfect failure analysis

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-11-07
CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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Problems solved by technology

Based on traditional statistical analysis, the Monte Carlo method is suitable for describing the impact of unrelated events on the results, but it is difficult to describe the relationship between events
Event tree, fault tree and decision tree methods can better express the logical relationship be

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  • Reservoir group outlet structure failure assessment method based on Bayesian network
  • Reservoir group outlet structure failure assessment method based on Bayesian network
  • Reservoir group outlet structure failure assessment method based on Bayesian network

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Embodiment 1

[0045] This embodiment is a Bayesian network-based method for evaluating the failure of drainage structures in reservoir groups. The reservoir groups analyzed by the method include: a reservoir with a large water storage capacity in the upstream and downstream, and a plurality of reservoirs in the middle reaches. A cascade reservoir group composed of reservoirs with small water storage capacity, in which the downstream reservoirs are generally controlled reservoirs, and each reservoir in the cascade reservoir group is equipped with a spillway and a spillway with a floodgate, such as figure 1 As shown, the failure tree at the level of the dam system, such as figure 2 shown.

[0046] The overall flood control system of the dam in the cascade reservoir group can be divided into subsystems such as the dam body, spillover (relying on discharge structures), and flood control. The failure tree of the spillover system is as follows: image 3 shown.

[0047]The spillway and spillwa...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a reservoir group outlet structure failure assessment method based on the Bayesian network. The reservoir group outlet structure failure assessment method includes the steps of establishing a Bayesian network topological structure, determining respective probability, calculating spillway system failure probability, and calculating the integral failure probability. The Bayesian network for failure probability determination is combined with a conventional event tree for determining stepped reservoir group spillway facility failure, and calculating the probability of downstream control step failure caused by upstream dam bursting flood is added as needed to form a complete Bayesian spillway facility failure assessment network. A reservoir group outlet structure failure is a complex multivariable system, and the assessment system can be used to analyze common cause failure and conduct backward inference. The assessment system can scientifically determine the value of information and determine whether new information needs to be acquired, so that the outlet structure failure analysis is gradually improved and becomes more scientific.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a Bayesian network-based method for evaluating the failure of drainage structures of reservoir groups, which is a hydraulic analysis and calculation method, a risk assessment of drainage structures and a risk prevention and control analysis of cascade reservoir group dam systems method. Background technique [0002] The frequency of extreme climates in the world is accelerating, and the concept of the maximum possible flood PMF or the maximum precipitation PMP of the reservoir dam can no longer meet the requirements of the new standard, because many existing rivers or river systems in the basin are already very complex, such as reservoirs formed by cascade development Groups, the design of floods should also consider the floods caused by extreme disaster-causing factors such as dam breaks and extreme climates. Therefore, from the perspective of ensuring the safety of the dam, the discharge capacity of the flood discharge facil...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06K9/62G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/06G06F18/24155Y02A10/40
Inventor 刘之平郭新蕾付辉夏庆福王涛郭永鑫李甲振杨开林黄伟马慧敏
Owner CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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