A load prediction method and system thereof

Abstract

The invention discloses a load prediction method and a system thereof. The method comprises the following steps: establishing a correlation factor mapping database according to the correlation factorsrequired by the prediction strategy, wherein the correlation factors at least comprise meteorological correlation factors; determining the corresponding load prediction methods according to the law of load change, and establishing a load prediction method database; according to the prediction strategy and load prediction method library, establishing a comprehensive prediction model. The system isused to implement the method. The invention fully explores the sensitivity of the load change to the meteorological related factor change, and gives the qualitative analysis result. In the process ofload prediction, the influence of meteorological parameters on meteorological factors is fully and reasonably expressed in the prediction method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric load forecasting, in particular to a load forecasting method and system thereof. Background technique [0002] Load forecasting is based on the known changes in power load and factors that affect it, such as meteorological factors, to explore the internal relationship between power load and the main influencing factors and the law of development and change, and to make advance forecasts for future power loads. In order to accurately predict the market demand for electricity as a commodity, one of the ways to improve the prediction accuracy is to try to take into account the influence of various related factors (such as meteorological factors) on the prediction results during the prediction process. However, it is difficult for the current general forecasting methods to obtain better forecasting accuracy, because these methods do not consider the characteristics of the power load in the region. ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The present invention aims at the problem in the prior art that load forecasting does not take into account the characteristics of the electric load in the region and thus cannot obtain better forecasting accuracy, and provides a load forecasting method and its system to fully explore the sensitivity of load changes to changes in weather-related factors, Qualitative analysis results are given; in the process of load forecasting, the influence of weather-related parameters in the forecasting method on meteorological factors is fully and reasonably expressed

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