Climate change risk analysis and evaluation method and device

Abstract

The invention provides a climate change risk analysis and evaluation method, which comprises the steps of determining climate variables and social and economic variables based on historical climate data, historical social and economic data and quantifiable climate policy indexes; respectively constructing a regional economic loss model, a meta-analysis loss model, an extreme disaster loss model and a department climatic loss model from top to bottom according to the climatic variable and the social economic variable; and determining comprehensive climatic change economic loss according to theregional economic loss model, the meta-analysis loss model, the extreme disaster loss model and the department climatic loss model. An economic model and a physical model are coupled, modeling is carried out based on historical data, social and economic risks caused by climate change are evaluated based on future climate change data, the influence of climate change on a social and economic systemis quantified, and probabilistic loss and income caused by climate change are obtained.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of climate change quantification, in particular to a method and device for climate change risk analysis and assessment. Background technique [0002] Climate change has brought great risks to the earth on which human beings depend. Due to the large amount of greenhouse gas emissions, the global surface temperature continues to rise, and the melting of glaciers in polar regions leads to sea level rise. Climate change affects global atmospheric circulation. Under the combined effect of these factors, the frequency of global extreme climate events has increased and their destructive power has increased. At the same time, climate change has exacerbated problems in agriculture, water resources, energy, ecological environment, health and other fields, caused serious damage to natural systems, and caused huge economic losses and casualties to human social and economic systems. [0003] Quantifying the risks posed by climate...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Quantifying and summarizing climate risks is difficult. For example, when quantifying the physical impacts of climate change, the natural mechanisms involved in constructing physical models are quite complex, and the construction of economic models involves many influencing factors. Complex natural and social systems are There are many uncertainties in the interaction coupling, the lagging impact of climate change on the socio-economic system, and the heterogeneity of responses to climate change between regions, all of which make us face great challenges in assessing climate change risks

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