Hydrological forecasting method and system considering rainfall grades

A technology of hydrological forecasting and quantitative rainfall forecasting, which is applied in the field of hydrological forecasting methods and systems at the level, can solve problems such as inaccurate results, and achieve the effect of strong versatility, high efficiency, and easy realization

Active Publication Date: 2020-05-08
HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In view of the defects of the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to solve the technical problem that the existing hydrological forecasting method does not fully consider the difference of input data uncertainty under different rainfall levels, and the results are often not accurate enough

Method used

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  • Hydrological forecasting method and system considering rainfall grades
  • Hydrological forecasting method and system considering rainfall grades
  • Hydrological forecasting method and system considering rainfall grades

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Embodiment

[0085] Example: Taking the Cuntan hydrological station as an example, the collected hydrometeorological data and related quantitative rainfall forecast data are used to drive the hydrological model to obtain the forecasted flow of 1 day, 2 days and 3 days. According to the rainfall grading threshold obtained by genetic algorithm optimization, the obtained forecast flow is divided into the forecast results under strong rainfall and weak rainfall according to the rainfall in the next day (when the rainfall w≥1mm, it is heavy rainfall; when the rainfall is 0≤ When w≤1mm, it is weak rainfall), so as to obtain the posterior probability density function of the forecast flow under heavy rainfall and weak rainfall.

[0086] figure 2 and image 3 They are the a priori and a posteriori probability density maps when the forecast flow is 5000 and 16000 respectively under strong rainfall and weak rainfall during the forecast period of 3 days. It can be seen that when the forecast flow r...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a hydrological forecasting method and system considering rainfall grades and also discloses a hydrological uncertainty processor application method considering rainfall grades.The method comprises the following steps of: (1) collecting the hydrometeorological data and related quantitative rainfall forecast of a drainage basin; (2) establishing a hydrological model to obtain forecast flows in different forecast periods; (3) determining a rainfall grading threshold by adopting a genetic algorithm; (4) respectively calculating posterior probability density functions underheavy rainfall and weak rainfall according to the threshold determined in the previous step; and (5) calculating and analyzing hydrological uncertainty. According to the method of the invention, therainfall grading threshold is determined by adopting the genetic algorithm; a Gaussian mixture model is used for fitting the edge distribution of actually measured flow and forecast flow; the hydrological uncertainty under the conditions of heavy rainfall and weak rainfall is analyzed; and with the hydrological uncertainty processor application method considering the rainfall grades adopted, the application of a hydrological uncertainty processor is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of hydrological forecasting, and more specifically, to a hydrological forecasting method and system considering rainfall levels. Background technique [0002] Hydrological forecasting is a technology that uses hydrological models to predict the future hydrological situation. It plays an important role in flood control, drought resistance, watershed management, hydropower generation, and comprehensive utilization of water resources. Due to the existence of uncertain factors such as input data errors and model parameter errors in the calculation process of the hydrological model, there is a large uncertainty in the forecast results, and the risk of the hydrological forecast is ignored. Therefore, the uncertainty of the hydrological forecast results needs to be analyzed. Quantitative assessment and development of methods for dealing with uncertainty in hydrological forecasts. [0003] The existing hydrological uncertain...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06N3/12
CPCG06Q10/04G06N3/126
Inventor 周建中王彧蓉冯快乐杨鑫方威金倩芳查港何中政贾本军武慧铃
Owner HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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