Medium-and-long-term power load prediction method and device, computer equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium-and-long-term power load prediction method and device, computer equipment and a storage medium. The method comprises the steps of performing wavelet transform on historical daily power consumption data to obtain corresponding approximate components and detail components; performing feature extraction on the approximate component and the detail component to obtain feature data; inputting the feature data of the approximate component into a time series prediction model based on an additive model for learning to obtain a prediction result; inputting the feature data of the detail components into a time-based convolutional neural network model for learning to obtain an output result; taking the output result as a target feature, and learning the target featureby using a lightweight gradient boosting decision tree model to obtain a prediction result; and summarizing the prediction result of the approximate component and the prediction result of the detail component to obtain a final power consumption prediction result, thereby constructing a prediction model about the medium and long term power load. The invention can effectively improve the medium andlong term power load prediction precision.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of electric power forecasting, in particular to a medium and long-term electric load forecasting method, device, computer equipment and storage medium. Background technique [0002] At present, most of the mainstream forecasts for power loads in the market are short-term forecasts, which take the day as the unit of time. The mid-to-long term forecast usually takes weeks, ten days or months as the timing unit. Now most power plants need to forecast electricity one week or even one month in advance, so as to reasonably control the power grid transportation, which is directly related to the economic benefits of the power plant and the safety of power consumption of the grid. However, medium and long-term forecasting involves a long time range, and the forecasting uncertainty of variables such as temperature and weather is high, which makes such variables unusable and difficult to forecast. [0003] Traditional m...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Embodiments of the present invention provide a method, device, computer equipment, and storage medium for mid- and long-term power load forecasting, aiming to solve the problem of insufficient accuracy of mid- and long-term power load forecasting in the prior art

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