Short-term wind speed prediction method, apparatus and system

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a short-term wind speed prediction method, apparatus and system. The short-term wind speed prediction method includes the steps: acquiring the wind speed historical data which is preprocessed; using an experience modal decomposition method to decompose the wind speed historical data to obtain a plurality of data components; inputting each data component to a pre-established BP neural network optimization model to predict, and obtaining each prediction sub-result which is one to one corresponding to each data component; and superposing each prediction sub-result to obtain the wind speed prediction result, wherein the establishing process of the BP neural network optimization model includes the steps: acquiring the training sample data, and inputting the training sample data to the BP neural network; and performing searching optimization processing on the parameters of the BP neural network by means of a particle swarm gravitation searching mixed algorithm, and obtaining a trained BP neural network optimization model. The short-term wind speed prediction method, apparatus and system can reduce the influence of natural wind fluctuation on prediction accuracy during the using process, and can improve the global convergence accuracy to enable the wind speed prediction result to be relatively more accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The embodiments of the present invention relate to the technical field of wind power generation, in particular to a short-term wind speed prediction method, device and system. Background technique [0002] Wind energy is a renewable and environment-friendly new energy source, which has been paid more and more attention by countries all over the world. In recent years, with the breakthrough of wind power generation technology, the number, scale and total installed capacity of wind farms have gradually increased. Under the condition of large-scale wind power grid connection, the fluctuation of unit output caused by the uncertainty and intermittency of natural wind often has a certain impact on the stability and safety of the power system. As an effective means to solve the above problems, wind speed prediction has attracted extensive attention from scholars. Accurate wind speed prediction is conducive to dispatching parts to arrange dispatching plans a...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, when predicting wind speed, traditional methods such as time series analysis and continuous forecasting are used to predict wind speed. With the continuous improvement of people's requirements for prediction accuracy, it is difficult to avoid natural The influence of wind volatility on the prediction accuracy, and the global convergence accuracy is low, which reduces the prediction accuracy to a certain extent

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