Method and device for determining pipe failure probability

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a device for determining pipe failure probability, wherein the method and the device belong to the technical field of an oil gas pipe system. The method comprisesthe steps of determining a third-party damage failure probability based on a damage type, a damage generation grade and a plurality of damage prevention measures; determining a geological disaster failure probability based on a disaster generation grade, a disaster leakage grade and a disaster protection measure which corresponds with the disaster type; determining an outer corrosion failure probability based on the operation pressure and the pipe wall thickness of a target pipe, and at least one outer corrosion generation grade and a plurality of outer corrosion prevention measure grades; anddetermining an inner corrosion failure probability based on the operation pressure, the pipe wall thickness, an inner corrosion generation grade and a plurality of inner corrosion prevention measuregrades. Furthermore, based on the third-party damage failure probability, the geological disaster failure probability, the outer corrosion failure probability and the inner corrosion failure probability, the failure probability of the target pipe is determined through Boolean algebra or Boolean operation, and accuracy in identifying risk grade of the target pipe is improved.

Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of oil and gas pipeline systems, in particular to a method and device for determining failure probability of pipelines. Background technique

[0002] In the process of oil and gas transportation, in order to ensure the safe operation of the target pipeline, the risk level of the target pipeline can be determined in time, and then the control operation protection measures can be formulated in time based on the risk level of the target pipeline. Since the risk level of the target pipeline is based on the failure probability of the target pipeline, that is, when the failure consequences of the target pipeline are basically the same, the greater the failure probability of the target pipeline, the higher the risk level, and the smaller the failure probability , the lower the risk level. The failure probability of the target pipeline refers to the possibility of leakage of the target pipeline under the influence ...

Images