Electric energy replacement user willingness prediction method based on a replacement electricity price probability model

A probabilistic model, electric energy replacement technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of high comprehensive cost and low user acceptance, and achieve the effect of increasing willingness

Active Publication Date: 2019-04-05
STATE GRID SICHUAN ECONOMIC RES INST
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

Restricted by the level of equipment development and energy price factors, the comprehensive cost of electric energy in various application fields is higher than other traditional energy sources, and the user acceptance is low

Method used

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  • Electric energy replacement user willingness prediction method based on a replacement electricity price probability model
  • Electric energy replacement user willingness prediction method based on a replacement electricity price probability model
  • Electric energy replacement user willingness prediction method based on a replacement electricity price probability model

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Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0034] Step S1, classify fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, and determine the basic data of each type, including the investment cost of a certain type of vehicle model, the energy consumption per 100 kilometers of a certain type of vehicle model, and the proportion of a certain type of vehicle model to all models.

[0035] Considering that there are many models of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, the amount of data is huge. When comparing comprehensive costs, it may appear that different models have similar investment costs and energy consumption levels. For example, the price and fuel consumption of Polo and Santana under the Volkswagen brand are similar. Therefore, based on the investment cost and energy consumption level, the model data can be clustered and preprocessed to improve the efficiency of problem solving.

[0036] The K-means clustering algorithm can divide a given data set according to the number K of clusters given by the user, and divide the data set in a...

Embodiment 2

[0074] In order to verify the effectiveness of the prediction method and model of the present invention, the user willingness to "replace fuel with electricity" is predicted based on the model data of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, which account for 90% of the market sales. Electric vehicle charging electricity price adopts the pricing model of electricity fee plus service fee, which is 1.2 yuan / KW h, the price of No. 92 gasoline is 7.2 yuan / L, the price of No. 95 gasoline is 7.7 yuan / L, and the discount rate i is 0.08. In the case analysis, considering the different one-time payment ability of users, the user is divided into 4 consumption intervals according to the price of the car with 150,000 yuan as the interval, and the prediction method proposed in this patent is used for analysis for each user interval. Table 1 shows the willingness to participate in substituting electricity for oil in each user segment.

[0075] Table 1

[0076]

[0077] As shown in Table 1, ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an electric energy replacement user willingness prediction method based on a replacement electricity price probability model, and the method comprises the steps: 1, carrying out the classification of a fuel vehicle and an electric vehicle, and determining the basic data of each type; 2, pairing and combining the type of the fuel vehicle and the type of the electric vehicleto obtain all alternative schemes for replacing the fuel vehicle by the electric vehicle; 3, solving the occurrence probability of each substitution scheme; 4, calculating the alternative electricityprices of all alternative schemes by adopting an alternative electricity price probability model; And 5, taking the alternative electricity price, the actual electricity price and the occurrence probability of each alternative scheme as consideration factors, and solving the user willingness. The electric energy replacement willingness of users in the electric automobile market can be quantitatively reflected, and the quantitative result can visually reflect the strength of the participation willingness of the users.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting electric energy substitution, in particular to a method for predicting user willingness to substitute electric energy based on a probability model of electric energy substitution. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of population and economic level, energy consumption is increasing day by day, and our country is facing many challenges such as resource shortage, climate change and environmental governance. In order to reduce dependence on traditional fossil energy and achieve sustainable development goals, the State Grid Corporation of China has proposed a new energy consumption model of "replacing coal with electricity, oil with electricity, electricity coming from afar, and clean electricity", advocating Realize the transformation of energy structure through energy substitution and electric energy substitution. Electric energy substitution is specifically defined a...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 王睎任志超叶强汪伟徐浩陈礼频曹开江程超王海燕马瑞光
Owner STATE GRID SICHUAN ECONOMIC RES INST
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