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Method for forecasting short-term wind-electricity power

A wind power and weather forecasting technology, applied in wind power generation, neural learning methods, electrical components, etc., can solve problems such as no wind power forecasting system

Inactive Publication Date: 2010-06-16
NORTHWEST CHINA GRID
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] China's wind power forecasting is still in the stage of exploration and research, and there is no complete wind power forecasting system at present

Method used

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  • Method for forecasting short-term wind-electricity power
  • Method for forecasting short-term wind-electricity power
  • Method for forecasting short-term wind-electricity power

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Embodiment Construction

[0047] The system will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0048] refer to figure 1 , Wind power forecasting system, including weather and underlying surface data module, RAMS model calculation module, wind power statistics module, and user display interface. Anemometer data, meteorological station data, and large-scale forecast field data are transformed into the data format required by RAMS through pre-processing, providing initial meteorological field information for the calculation of the RAMS model; terrain, vegetation, and sea temperature data provide the following data for the RAMS model. Surface information; use the neural network method to statistically model the wind power data in the same period and the weather forecast fields such as wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, and temperature calculated by the RAMS model, and obtain a wind power statistical model; use the wind power statistica...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for forecasting short-term wind-electricity power. The method comprises the following steps: (1) acquiring data of global large-scale weather forecast fields; (2) establishing an RAMS model which calculates forecast fields such as wind speed, temperature, air pressure, and the like by using the following equation set; (3) inputting the data of the large-scale weather forecast fields acquired in step (1) into the RAMS model established in step (2) to acquire wind direction-wind speed forecast data within the range of a wind-electricity field; (4) establishing a wind-electricity power statistical model by using a BP neural network and combining historical forecast data of the wind speed, wind direction and the air pressure within the range of the wind-electricity field and power recording data of the wind-electricity field in the same period; and (5) taking the wind direction-wind speed data of a forecast date as original parameters and inputting the data into the wind-electricity power statistical model to calculate the wind-electricity power forecast result of a forecast day. Due to adoption of 90-meter resolution topographic data, the method can calculate regions of flat terrain, hilly terrain, complex terrain, and the like by using different resolutions, and has the advantages of flexible forecast scheme and less limiting condition.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind power generation systems, in particular to a method for forecasting wind power, in particular to a method for forecasting wind power in a wind farm by using a high-resolution numerical model combined with a statistical model of wind power. Background technique: [0002] In recent years, the energy crisis and environmental problems have been aggravated, which has attracted great attention from the international community and the public. In order to overcome the constraints of energy supply and demand, promote sustainable economic development, and improve the living environment, vigorously develop renewable energy sources including wind energy. Renewable energy has become the focus of extensive attention of governments and scientific and technological circles. Under such circumstances, China's wind power industry has shown a good momentum of development, and large-scale grid-connected wind power has developed r...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00H02J3/38G06N3/08
CPCY02E10/763Y04S10/54Y02A30/00Y02E10/76
Inventor 朱敏奕魏磊姜宁高媛媛孙川永于广亮
Owner NORTHWEST CHINA GRID
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