Universal wind power short-term forecasting method

Abstract

The invention relates to a universal wind power short-term forecasting method, which comprises the following steps of: (1) collecting the global large scale meteorological forecast field data and terrain, vegetation and seawater temperature information; (2) creating a WRF (The Weather Research and Forecasting) mode; (3) inputting information collected in the step (1) to the WRF mode in the step (2) to acquire wind speed and wind direction forecast data in the range of wind power field; (4) correcting the wind speed; and (5) solving the forecast wind power by using a blower power curve in the step (4). In the universal wind power short-term forecasting method of the invention, the forecast wind speed can be obtained by collecting the global large scale meteorological forecast field data and terrain, vegetation and seawater temperature information and inputting the information collected to the WRF mode, and the corrected forecast wind speed value is more close to actually measured wind speed via wind speed correction, therefore, the short-term wind power can be precast more accurately through the corrected forecast wind speed value. The method is free from historical operation data of the wind power field and the forecast scheme is flexible with less limiting conditions.

Description

【Technical field】 [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind power generation systems, in particular to a short-term wind power forecasting method, in particular to a method for wind power forecasting of a wind farm by using a high-resolution numerical model combined with a fan power curve. 【Background technique】 [0002] In recent years, the energy crisis and environmental problems have been aggravated, which has attracted great attention from the international community and the public. In order to overcome the constraints of energy supply and demand, promote sustainable economic development, and improve the living environment, vigorously develop renewable energy sources including wind energy. Renewable energy has become the focus of extensive attention of governments and scientific and technological circles. Under such circumstances, China's wind power industry has shown a good momentum of development, and large-scale grid-connected wind power has developed rapidly....

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, in areas with relatively large-scale wind power development in China, the power grid structure is relatively weak, and the phenomenon of power shortage in wind farms is relatively serious. The historical data of wind farms is not very representative. The 10-million-kilowatt-scale wind power bases are all newly-built wind farms, and there is no historical record of wind power output. In this case, the above-mentioned method of combining numerical models with statistical methods is no longer applicable.

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