Underground water model output uncertainty analysis method

A technology of model output and analysis methods, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as probability distribution characteristics of groundwater models and their influencing factors analysis, and achieve accurate identification.

Inactive Publication Date: 2012-06-20
NANJING UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, these methods cannot analyze the probability distribution characteristics of the groundwater model output and its influencing factors

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  • Underground water model output uncertainty analysis method
  • Underground water model output uncertainty analysis method
  • Underground water model output uncertainty analysis method

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Embodiment Construction

[0025] The invention analyzes the probability distribution of the model output variables based on an ideal groundwater flow model. The output variable of the groundwater model is the groundwater table series. The probability distribution characteristics of the groundwater level sequence are obtained by frequency analysis method, and then the sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the key uncertainty factors.

[0026] Establishment of Ideal Groundwater Model

[0027] Such as figure 1 As shown, the ideal 3D groundwater model is a rectangle on the plane, with a length of 3600m and a width of 1800m, which is divided into grid units of 20m*20m. The model extends 53m vertically and is divided into three layers. From top to bottom, they are: unconfined aquifer (1-30m), impermeable aquifer (31-33m), confined aquifer (34-53m), each aquifer Layer occurrence level. Assuming that the aqueous medium is heterogeneous, the hydraulic conductivity field follows a stationary dist...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an underground water model output uncertainty analysis method in combination of a frequency analysis method and a sensitivity analysis method. The frequency analysis process comprises a parameter estimating process and a supposed checking process, wherein a typical distribution function in 7 is selected as an alternative probability density function, the supposed checking is carried out, and a proper probability density function is selected for the underground water level sequence. The sensitivity analysis method comprises stepwise regression analysis and mutual entropy analysis; the stepwise regression analysis can be used for analyzing the trend of the uncertain importance of an input variable, and the mutual entropy analysis can be used for well identifying the uncertainty factor. The method can be used for making up the deficiency in research content of the traditional uncertainty analysis method, analyzing the probability distribution characteristic and identifying the key uncertainty factor influencing the variable probability distribution, thus the production and source of the underground water model uncertainty can be well understood, feedback is provided for the data acquiring work of the underground water model, and the uncertainty of the model is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a model output uncertainty analysis method, in particular to a groundwater model output uncertainty analysis method. Background technique [0002] With the development of numerical simulation methods and computer technology, groundwater models have become a basic tool for groundwater resources management and planning. The groundwater system is a complex and open giant system, which is affected by hydrology, meteorology, geological conditions and human activities. Due to the limitation of observation data, when the groundwater model is used for numerical simulation, the simulation results often deviate from the actual observation, that is, the uncertainty of the groundwater model, which affects the reliability of groundwater simulation. Therefore, in order to reduce the risk of groundwater simulation and prediction, the uncertainty analysis of groundwater models has become a hot research topic at home and abroad. [0003] At p...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 王栋吴吉春曾献奎
Owner NANJING UNIV
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