A Forecasting Method of Electric Power Demand in Iron and Steel Industry

Abstract

The invention discloses a forecasting method for power demand of the iron and steel industry and load forecasting of a power system. The forecasting method includes classifying influencing factors of electricity consumption of the iron and steel industry, analyzing key influencing factors of the electricity consumption of the iron and steel industry by a qualitative and quantitative combined method, proposing an index system of the electricity consumption of the iron and steel industry and providing a demand forecasting model. The forecasting method provides a scientific and practical technical scheme for power enterprises to accurately forecast the power demand of related industries and further forecast the power demand of the whole society. The forecasting method has the advantages that existing power demand forecasting methods are enriched and improved, and the forecasting method is significant in improving power demand forecasting level of the power enterprises and can generate remarkable economic and social benefits.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the load forecasting of the power system, in particular to the forecasting of the power demand in the iron and steel industry. Background technique [0002] Power demand forecasting is the basic work of planning, planning, power consumption, dispatching and other departments in the power system. In the process of market-oriented operation of the power industry, power demand forecasting has become one of the core businesses of market transactions, marketing and other departments. [0003] The electricity consumption of the four major energy-consuming industries of iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and non-metallic mineral products accounts for about 1 / 3 of the electricity consumption of the whole society, and the electricity consumption of high-energy-consuming industries has the characteristics of ups and downs. The reduction has an important impact on the total demand for electricity. The electricity consumption ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] (2) It is greatly affected by the macro economy, with large fluctuations and difficult forecasting

After May 2008, affected by the financial crisis, electricity consumption in the whole society and high-energy-consuming electricity consumption declined, but the electricity consumption in high-energy-consuming industries was more affected and the decline was even greater.

Without a set of unified analysis indicators, it is difficult to analyze the power consumption of high energy-consuming industries in depth

[0011] (2) Failure to grasp the quantitative relationship between electricity consumption and influencing factors in high energy-consuming industries

For example: as we all know, the electricity consumption of the steel industry mainly depends on the steel output, and the steel output depends on the steel demand of downstream industries such as real estate and automobiles. However, there are no available research results on the quantitative relationship between steel output and downstream industry demand. Therefore, the current analysis or prediction of high energy-consuming industries is mostly qualitative, and it is difficult to carry out quantitative analysis or prediction

[0012] (3) Lack of targeted forecasting methods

Although there are many achievements in the domestic and foreign literature on power demand forecasting methods, these forecasting methods basically do not consider the characteristics of electricity consumption in high energy-consuming industries, and their pertinence and effectiveness are not strong. Lack of effective methods and models

Sometimes the prediction results are obtained by using some methods reluctantly, but it is also "knowing what is happening, not knowing why", and it is not clear why the electricity consumption of high energy-consuming industries changes

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