A Forecasting Method of Electric Power Demand in Iron and Steel Industry

A forecasting method and technology of power demand, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, instruments, calculations, etc., can solve the problems of not considering the electricity consumption characteristics of high energy-consuming industries, no research results, and lack of effective methods and models, etc., to avoid Insufficient power generation capacity, reduced power supply shortage, strong pertinence and practical effects

CN103258069BActive Publication Date: 2016-01-20ECONOMIC & TECH RES INST OF HUBEI ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY SGCC +1
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Publication Date
2016-01-20

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Abstract

The invention discloses a forecasting method for power demand of the iron and steel industry and load forecasting of a power system. The forecasting method includes classifying influencing factors of electricity consumption of the iron and steel industry, analyzing key influencing factors of the electricity consumption of the iron and steel industry by a qualitative and quantitative combined method, proposing an index system of the electricity consumption of the iron and steel industry and providing a demand forecasting model. The forecasting method provides a scientific and practical technical scheme for power enterprises to accurately forecast the power demand of related industries and further forecast the power demand of the whole society. The forecasting method has the advantages that existing power demand forecasting methods are enriched and improved, and the forecasting method is significant in improving power demand forecasting level of the power enterprises and can generate remarkable economic and social benefits.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the load forecasting of the power system, in particular to the forecasting of the power demand in the iron and steel industry. Background technique

[0002] Power demand forecasting is the basic work of planning, planning, power consumption, dispatching and other departments in the power system. In the process of market-oriented operation of the power industry, power demand forecasting has become one of the core businesses of market transactions, marketing and other departments.

[0003] The electricity consumption of the four major energy-consuming industries of iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and non-metallic mineral products accounts for about 1 / 3 of the electricity consumption of the whole society, and the electricity consumption of high-energy-consuming industries has the characteristics of ups and downs. The reduction has an important impact on the total demand for electricity. The electricity consumption ...

Examples

Embodiment Construction

[0022] Technical route of the present invention is as follows:

[0023] 1. Basic steps of electricity demand forecasting

[0024] Electricity demand forecasting is divided into the following steps:

[0025] (1) Determination of forecast target and forecast content;

[0026] (2) Collection of relevant historical data;

[0027] (3) Analysis of basic data;

[0028] (4) Prediction or acquisition of data related to power system factors;

[0029] (5) Selection and trade-off of forecasting models and methods;

[0030] (6) modeling;

[0031] (7) Data preprocessing;

[0032] (8) Model parameter identification;

[0033] (9) Model evaluation, to test the significance of the model;

[0034] (10) Apply the model for forecasting;

[0035] (11) Comprehensive analysis and evaluation of prediction results.

[0036] 2. Regression prediction method

[0037] Power demand is determined by the degree of economic development. The regression forecasting model captures the development law o...