An evaluation method for cascading failures of ship fire protection systems

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of analysis and decision of complex systems, and particularly relates to a method for estimating the linkage failure of a ship fire-fighting system on the basis of a cellular automata theory and an Agent behavioral model. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a cellular space, cells, a neighbor and a boundary; assigning an initial running state parameter value to each cell; setting the cabin fire hazard degree state distribution of each cell representing a cabin fire-fighting unit, and selecting a certain cell optionally for evolving; and performing cell evolution. According to the method, a ship fire-fighting system linkage failure rule considering ship cabin fire hazard degree influence is given, so that a transmission path, brittle source quantity and linkage failure scale for the estimation of a linkage failure are quantified, and flows of a quantitative estimation method and a linkage failure estimation software algorithm for further taking a preventive control strategy are provided; the method is suitable for ship fire-fighting systems, and has general applicability to the estimation of linkage failure behaviors of other complex systems having similar structures.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of analysis and decision-making of complex systems, and in particular relates to an evaluation method for cascading failures of ship fire-fighting systems based on cellular automata theory and Agent behavior model. Background technique [0002] With the development of science and technology, the functions of modern ships are becoming more and more powerful, and the environment is becoming more and more complex. The reliability and safety of ships are getting more and more attention. Ship fire is one of the dangerous accidents that affect the safety of ships. In order to realize the early confirmation of fire, automatic alarm, linkage control and disaster reduction and fire extinguishing functions, the modern ship integrated control system will be equipped with a fire protection system, which is a complex system. However, once the subsystems of the fire protection system fail due to changes in the internal environment ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Traditional system reliability assessment methods, such as reliability block diagram method, fault tree method, etc., have the following disadvantages: on the one hand, these methods are all based on the assumption that the system fails independently, and ignore the correlation of system failure; On the other hand, the traditional reliability evaluation focuses on the evaluation of system hardware

However, correlation is a common feature of complex system failures, and the results obtained by ignoring the correlation of failures are too conservative or even wrong, and the cascading failures of complex systems are not only related to the topology of the system network, but also related to the system's material, information, The exchange and transfer of energy are closely related, and the comprehensive evaluation of system function failure is more important

Due to the above reasons, there are few relevant literatures on cascading failure assessment of complex systems, and there are no relevant theoretical results on the quantitative assessment of cascading failures of ship fire protection systems.

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