A method for ultra-short-term forecasting of photovoltaic power generation power

Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power station generated power super-short-term prediction method. The method includes the following steps that firstly, historical measured power data and short-term predicted power data of a photovoltaic power station are acquired; secondly, the historical measured power data and the short-term predicted power data of the photovoltaic power station are preprocessed; thirdly, according to the preprocessed historical measured power data and the preprocessed short-term predicted power data of the photovoltaic power station, super-short-term prediction powers, corresponding to different prediction periods, of the photovoltaic power station are acquired through a photovoltaic power station generated power super-short-term prediction model based on the prediction periods; fourthly, according to the acquired super-short-term prediction powers of the photovoltaic power station, the optimal prediction period of the photovoltaic power station generated power super-short-term prediction model is determined; fifthly, super-short-term power prediction of the photovoltaic power station is conducted based on the photovoltaic power station generated power super-short-term prediction model based on the optimal prediction period. According to the method, the photovoltaic power station generated power super-short-term prediction accuracy is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for ultra-short-term forecasting of photovoltaic power generation power, and belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation forecasting. Background technique [0002] Under the pressure of the increasing shortage of global fossil energy and the deteriorating environmental pollution, rational development of renewable energy and improvement of energy utilization are the key to solving the increasingly prominent energy demand growth, energy shortage, and energy utilization in the process of rapid economic and social development in our country. The inevitable choice of contradiction between environmental protection and environmental protection. As a renewable green and clean energy, solar energy is gradually favored by various countries, and photovoltaic power generation has developed rapidly. However, due to the intermittent, fluctuating and periodic characteristics of photovoltaic power generation, the ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In practical engineering applications, once the input data source is temporarily interrupted, the prediction at that moment will fail, affecting the ultra-short-term prediction accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation power.

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