Uncertainty Analysis Method of Multi-Small Hydropower Group Output Based on Scenario Analysis

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of hydropower scheduling and discloses a multi-small-hydropower-group output uncertainty analysis method based on scenario analysis. For the features of randomness and difficult prediction of small hydropower output, a random planning correlation theory is introduced, an output scenario set is constructed by use of a scenario analysis method, fuzzy cluster and cluster integrated quality methods are brought forward for realizing scenario reduction, condition probability distribution of small hydropower prediction and an actual scenario under a current prediction precision condition is established, and small hydropower uncertainties are converted into finite uncertainty condition scenario problems. At the same time, for the situation where multiple small hydropower groups are accessed to a power grid, generating feature differences between the small hydropower groups are taken into consideration, and a multi-small-hydropower-group scenario combination is determined by application of a mathematical combination theory. This is taken as an input condition for compiling a hydropower plan, the accuracy and the performability of the hydropower plan can be improved, and the method has an important utility value especially for hydropower scheduling of a region rich in small hydropower.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of hydropower dispatching, and relates to a method for analyzing the uncertainty of output of multiple small hydropower groups based on scenario analysis, which can provide more accurate input conditions for the preparation of short-term dispatching plans. [0002] technical background [0003] Under the guidance of abundant water energy resources, superior development and utilization conditions, the superiority of the project itself and the guidance of national policies, my country's small hydropower has grown rapidly at a rate of about 7.2% per year. By the end of 2014, more than 47,000 small hydropower stations had been built nationwide. The installed capacity and power generation amounted to 73GW and 220TWh respectively, accounting for 24.19% and 20.64% of my country's hydropower installed capacity and power generation. Large-scale small hydropower groups are important power resources in my country. [000...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Different from large and medium-sized hydropower stations, due to the limitation of natural conditions, small hydropower groups are mainly distributed in mountainous areas rich in water resources, and often present diversified power generation characteristics across different micro-meteorological systems and hydrogeological divisions. Affected by climate change, their output presents More obvious randomness and unpredictability

Traditional power dispatching is based on reliable power sources and accurate load forecasting, that is, assuming that the output forecast of small hydropower is a definite value, and ignoring the influence of its forecast output deviation on dispatching results, the results obtained cannot reflect the system well. The actual operating status of the hydropower station group has brought risks to the dispatching operation of the power grid after the large-scale grid connection of the hydropower station group

The stochastic programming method can objectively reflect the influence of uncertain factors on the optimal dispatch of the system, and has gradually become an important means of simulating the dispatch operation of power sources with uncertain factors after they are connected to the grid. There is no theoretical research and practical application of sexual scheduling problem

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