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A mountain fire disaster early warning method for overhead transmission lines

A technology for overhead transmission lines and mountain fires, which is applied in the field of early warning of mountain fire disasters for overhead transmission lines, can solve problems such as insufficient integration and difficult time and space spread of mountain fires, and achieve reduced power outage losses, timely and effective disaster response, and chain prevention glitch effect

Active Publication Date: 2019-03-12
SICHUAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, most of these studies focus on statistics and mechanism analysis, and the prediction is based on the assumption of a linear relationship, which is different from the actual spread of wildfires. It is difficult to realize the prediction of wildfire spread in time and space, and to combine the influence mechanism of external factors on power grid security. not enough

Method used

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  • A mountain fire disaster early warning method for overhead transmission lines
  • A mountain fire disaster early warning method for overhead transmission lines
  • A mountain fire disaster early warning method for overhead transmission lines

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[0070] Example: Realize random forest modeling, obtain the cell transformation rules of the early warning area, realize the cellular automata in MATLAB R2012a, and realize the spatiotemporal prediction of wildfire spread. Then predict the time for the wildfire to spread to the overhead line, and evaluate the risk of the overhead line.

[0071] Terrain roughness and other implicit geographic gradient variables are included in the fitting model, which can reduce the spatial dependence of the data. In addition, during the construction of the random forest, each regression tree is sub-sampled (approximately 66% of the data is used each time), which further reduces the spatial dependence of the data. In the random forest fitting process, a total of 500 regression trees were constructed. This is because we found that when it exceeds 500, more regression trees cannot effectively improve the fitting accuracy. Three variables are randomly used to divide the data each time. The minimum n...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a mountain fire disaster early warning method for an overhead power transmission line, comprising: A. collecting and obtaining mountain fire occurrence information by using a monitoring module, and the mountain fire occurrence information includes combustible material characteristics, terrain factors and meteorological factors; B. obtaining mountain fire occurrence The wildfire impact factors in the information, and for the threshold correlation between wildfires and their wildfire impact factors, the relationship is established through the random forest model; C. Through the cellular automaton with the ability to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution process of complex natural disasters, the Model the spatio-temporal process of wildfire spread, and use the random forest model to determine the cellular transformation rules of cellular automata; D. Predict the spread process of wildfire through the cellular automata model, estimate the time from the wildfire to the overhead line, and Combining external disaster information and internal characteristics of the power grid to assess the risk of overhead line outage. The invention can help more effectively deal with the cascading faults of the electric power system caused by the prediction of natural disasters, thereby reducing the economic and personnel losses of the power grid and power-consuming units.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wildfire risk early warning, and specifically relates to a wildfire disaster early warning method for overhead transmission lines. Background technique [0002] As the land for transmission line corridors becomes more and more tense, many transmission line corridors often span densely-vegetated mountainous and forested areas. When a wildfire spreads below the line, it may cause line-to-ground or phase-to-phase breakdown and trigger a trip accident. Especially for units that need continuous power supply, such as hospitals and mines, once power outages are likely to cause increased personal damage and property losses. With the introduction of policies for afforestation, returning farmland to forests, and closing hills for afforestation, the height and density of vegetation in mountainous and forested areas near the transmission line corridor have increased significantly, further exacerbating the damage caused by...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06K9/62
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F30/367G06F18/24323Y02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 雒瑞森叶强陈利波邓创刘友波
Owner SICHUAN UNIV
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