37 results about "Human error probability" patented technology

A method for dynamic human reliability analysis of a multi-unit nuclear power plant comprises that follow steps: first, modeling a human error event by using a dynamic event tree, analyzing human error of an operator of the multi-unit nuclear power plant, and determining a type of human error and a potential human error; 2, construct a causal model of human error based on that Bayesian network andthe data guide modeling technology, and calculating nominal human error probabilities of various human error by using the model; 3, establish a function of that behavior forming factor with respect to the time variable base on the numerical solution method of the inverse problem, and establishing a calculation format of the dynamic human error probability according to the obtained function relation; 4, analyze that dynamic feedback loop in the model established in the step 1 by use the system dynamics, and combining the calculation result in the step 2 and the calculation format of the dynamic human error probability established in the step 3, constructing a dynamic reliability quantitative analysis model, and calculate the quantitative calculation value of the human factor reliability.

The invention provides a human error mode influence analysis method, which comprises the following steps: 1. Human-computer interaction task flow analysis and function model establishment, and human-computer system function model establishment for each sub-task; 2, human error pattern recognition, and finally obtain various human error patterns and their correspond standard probabilities in that task process; 3, construction of environmental impact factor system and determination of parameters; 4, human error probability calculation and human error mode influence analysis, human error probability calculation and human error mode influence on the functional unit and the final task; through the above steps and methods, the relationship between each function is clarified, and the EPC factor in the analysis task is quantified by means of HEART method, which achieves the goal of quantifying the effect of human error mode, and solves the practical problems of comprehensive evaluation of human error mode.

The invention discloses a maintenance task human factor fault modeling analysis method in a space man-machine system cabin, which comprises the following steps of: analyzing and decomposing maintenance tasks, and determining group cognitive behaviors and common performance conditions related to the maintenance tasks; based on the multiplicative group cognitive behavior, establishing a multiplicative group cognitive process model, and determining cognitive behavior cognitive failure modes and failure probability basic values; based on the common performance condition, refining the behavior influence factors, and calculating to obtain a common performance condition level and a multiplication group cognitive process total weight factor; and sequentially calculating to obtain a basic human error probability, a conditional human error probability and a joint human error probability. According to the method, the correlation among influence factor intervention, maintenance task decompositionand maintenance subtasks is considered, the basic human error probability, the conditional human error probability and the united human error probability are calculated more accurately, reference is provided for model designers to predict risks in advance and take response measures, and safe operation of a space man-machine system is guaranteed.

The invention, which belongs to the technical field of the avionics, relates to a wiring-free assembly applied to the inside of a flight parameter collection device, particularly to a wiring-free rigid-flex board assembly with four rectangular connectors. The existing rectangular connector has high pin hole density and lots of connecting pins are arranged inside the cavity; and a mother board and four rectangular connectors are connected inside a case by common wires, so that the wiring efficiency is low, the wiring period is long, and an error rate is high. The invention aims at providing a wiring-free design product. A combination structure including a first rigid board, a second rigid board, a third rigid board, a fourth rigid board, a first flex board, and a second flex board is employed by the provided assembly; printed circuits for communication of signals at two ends are distributed on the first flex board and the second flex board in a superposition mode. Using the assembly, a wiring-free design of an avionic product cast with four rectangular connectors is realized; the human error probability as well as the product weight is reduced; wearing of the wiring harness and the case is avoided; and the product maintainability is improved.

The invention discloses a method and a system for arranging digital human-machine interface monitoring units. The method includes performing parameter coding on a plurality of human-machine interface monitoring units according to characteristic values of the monitoring units; creating initialization groups according to a sequence of the monitoring units after parameter coding is performed on the monitoring units; evaluating the groups by a process for calculating error probabilities on the basis of an objective function of a Bayesian network to acquire monitoring human error probabilities corresponding to the groups; judging whether the monitoring human error probabilities acquired by means of evaluating the groups tend to be stable or not, creating new groups which represent an evolved sequence of the monitoring units by a genetic hybrid algorithm if the monitoring human error probabilities do not tend to be stable, or terminating an evolution procedure if the monitoring human error probabilities tend to be stable; and comparing the monitoring human error probabilities which are acquired in multiple group evaluation procedures and correspond to the multiple groups, and selecting the group with the minimum monitoring human error probability as the optimal sequence of the human-machine interface monitoring units so as to acquire the optimal arrangement of the human-machine interface monitoring units.

The invention discloses a fast convergence method for estimating an error probability of LDPC codes, for solving the problems of low convergence speed and a large number of necessary samples of the traditional estimation method. According to the fast convergence method disclosed by the invention, original biased distribution is multiplied by an auxiliary function, so that the noise generated by new biased distribution only falls into a fixed area, when a histogram for recording the number of the noise corresponding to the area is smooth, a corresponding probability mass function converges, and the error probability reaches an accurate value. According to the fast convergence method disclosed by the invention, a relatively low error probability of a code word can be realized by a relatively small decoding computation amount; and by adoption of the fast convergence method disclosed by the invention, the decoding computation amount necessary for simulation is reduced, and the simulation time is shortened.

The invention relates to an electric power system human factor reliability evaluation method based on a CREAM model. The electric power system human factor reliability evaluation method based on the CREAM model includes the following steps that first, common performance condition factors and corresponding status values are acquired, and weight coefficients of all the factors are calculated with the analytic hierarchy method; second, the status values of all common performance conditions are calculated according to the weight coefficients and the corresponding status values; third, the fuzzy CREAM model is built, and fuzzy computation is performed with the common performance condition statue values acquired in the second step as model input, and the final human error probability value is acquired. Compared with the prior art, the electric power system human factor reliability evaluation method based on the CREAM model has the advantages that electric power human operation reliability is improved, and safe and stable operation of a power grid is guaranteed.

The invention discloses a switching mechanism used in a car roof die. The switching mechanism comprises a female die, a base on which a male die is fixed and a mechanism group composed of supporting plates, backing plates and connecting plates, wherein the supporting plates are positioned in the middle of the base; the backing plates are positioned at two sides of the base; the supporting plates and the backing plates are connected into a whole through the connecting plates; operating screws on the base are arranged in the connecting plates; a cylinder is connected to the mechanism group; the male die is equipped with a nitrogen spring assembly positioned at the backing plate; and a guide pillar-guide sleeve assembly is arranged on the base. The switching mechanism has the characteristics that by additionally arranging the switching mechanism in the car roof die, the switching time for production with and without a skylight is greatly shortened, the production efficiency is improved, the human error probability is reduced, and fixture accidents are avoided.

The invention belongs to the technical field of system engineering reliability analysis, and relates to a human error analysis method and system, a computer device and a storage medium. The method comprises the steps of obtaining score values of a plurality of performance factors, wherein the performance factor is a performance influence factor corresponding to each sub-task in a task scene; calculating a score value according to a preset quantization processing mode; obtaining a membership degree value and a confidence degree; inputting the membership degree value and the confidence coefficient into a preset Bayesian network model, to obtain a human error probability value corresponding to the task scene. Human error probability prediction is more accurate, the risk point of the human error probability in the whole operation task can be further provided for subsequent master control room and man-machine interface designers, a theoretical basis is provided for subsequent improved design, and nuclear power station safety operation safety is improved.

The invention discloses a human reliability equilibrium method for deep water riser system risk maintenance decision optimization. The method includes taking a deep water platform SCR segment as a risk maintenance decision unit; selecting the maintenance decision unit to perform risk identification; performing unit transient failure probability analysis while performing failure probability analysis of overload stress fracture under the action of extreme environmental loads, failure probability analysis of overload fatigue fracture under the action of extreme environmental loads and failure probability analysis of external corrosion on the upper segment; performing risk analysis according to unit failure consequence assessment; back-calculating unit maintenance periods; and performing groupmaintenance strategy optimization based on the human reliability equilibrium method. The beneficial effects of the method are that maintenance grouping can be carried out on the units arranged according to the maintenance periods to realize the optimization of the riser risk maintenance strategies by taking the sum of three human error probabilities and the comparison of the maximum acceptable human error probability as the judging criteria of the maintenance grouping.

The invention discloses a human error probability calculation method and device. The method comprises: determining an operator detection error probability pdet; determining a team or group cognitive error probability pcog; determining a team or group operation error probability pope; and calculating a team or group human error probability p=pdet+pcog+pope. According to the human error probability calculation method and the human error probability calculation device disclosed by the invention, the team or group human error probability is divided into the operator detection error probability, the team or group cognitive error probability and the team or group operation error probability, and then the operator detection error probability, the team or group cognitive error probability and the team or group operation error probability are calculated respectively; and the sum of the three probabilities is used as a team or group human error probability, so that the purpose of effectively evaluating the team or group human error probability is realized.

A disposable sterile microbial culture dish comprises a culture dish body, an upper cover and a sealing device, wherein the culture dish body is provided with a barrel-shaped structure with a top opening, the diameter of the outer wall of the upper cover is equal to that of the inner wall of the culture dish body, an opening is formed in the middle of the upper cover, the sealing device is arranged at the opening, and a culture medium is arranged inside the culture dish body. The culture medium is sealed between a special container and outside air, subjected to bactericidal treatment and sterile operation in manufacture, more durable in storage than other devices and cannot be affected by external bacteria. Water taking detection operation steps can be simplified for detection personnel, time is saved for the whole detection process, detection cost is reduced, operation steps are decreased, human error probability is reduced, and accuracy is improved.

The invention provides a potential fault analysis method based on PFMEA and HRA methods. The potential fault analysis method comprises the following five steps: 1, task analysis; 2, abnormal mode and abnormal reason analysis; 3, quantification of the occurrence probability of the abnormal function mode; and 4, risk priority number calculation and potential fault identification. Through the steps, the problems of man-machine separation and difficulty in quantification of the potential fault probability in the PFMEA method are solved, the man-machine loop coupling effect and the human error correlation are considered by combining the CREAM and THERP methods in the HRA, and quantification of the human error probability and the potential fault occurrence probability is realized.

The invention provides a network cabling method, network equipment and a network management center. The method comprises the following steps that: first network equipment acquires the first port label of the first port of the first network equipment; and a main processor of the first network equipment transmits the first port label to the network management center or second network equipment according to a port corresponding relation, the network management center or the second network equipment looks up the second port label of the second network equipment corresponding to the first port label according to the port corresponding relation, and a CPU (Central Processing Unit) of a single board on which the second port is positioned controls an indicating lamp of the second port to be turned on. By adopting the network cabling method, the network equipment and the network management center, intelligent and intuitional guidance is provided for field operating personnel, network cabling is realized rapidly, manual numbering of cables is not needed, the topological corresponding relations of the ports do not need to be recorded manually, the human error probability is lowered, the cabling efficiency is increased, the network service opening speed is increased, and the labor costs of network cabling and maintenance are lowered.

The invention discloses a human error probability calculating method and a human error probability calculating device. The human error probability calculating method comprises the following steps of determining detection error probability (pdet); determining cognition error probability (pcog); determining operation error probability (pope); and calculating human error probability which is equal to the sum of the detection error probability (pdet), the cognition error probability (pcog) and the operation error probability (pope). The human error probability is divided into the detection error probability, the cognition error probability and the operation error probability, the detection error probability, the cognition error probability and the operation error probability are calculated respectively, and the sum of the detection error probability, the cognition error probability and the operation error probability serves as the human error probability of an operator, so that the purpose of quantitatively analyzing the human error probability of the operator after an accident occurs is achieved.

The invention discloses a digital nuclear power plant master control room operator response execution reliability assessment method. device and equipment. The method is used for solving the problems that the response executive human factor error probability is difficult to obtain through experiments and the quantitative evaluation result is inaccurate. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining a sample. The method includes acquiring a to-be-evaluated operation behavior in the target operation task, determining a state level of a behavior forming factor which corresponds to the mastercontrol room operator and the to-be-evaluated operation behavior and affects the response execution reliability; and obtaining a weight corresponding to the behavior forming factor, and obtaining a human error probability of response execution of the master control room operator to the to-be-evaluated operation behavior by using the weight and the state level, so as to evaluate the response execution reliability. Therefore, the human factor fault probability of response execution is obtained by using the comprehensive result of the state level and the weight of the behavior forming factor, the quantitative evaluation of the response execution reliability is realized, the final evaluation result is more in line with the reality, and the accuracy of the evaluation result is improved.

The invention discloses a flight safety assessment method based on human factor reliability, and the method comprises the steps: determining a flight task and a task scene, decomposing a selected taskinto a series of subtasks, and determining a subtask execution plan; in combination with the sub-task characteristics, judging the task category to which sub-tasks belongs; determining influence factors causing human errors of the sub-tasks, and determining the weight of each human error influence factor through a group decision method; and establishing a human factor reliability model accordingto a mapping relationship between human error influence factors and human errors, and calculating a human error probability of the sub-tasks so as to evaluate flight safety. The correlation and the difference between human error influence factors are comprehensively considered, the problem of error estimation caused by insufficient data and excessive dependence on expert judgment is solved, the objectivity and the correctness of a calculation result are ensured, and countermeasures can be provided for reducing human errors and improving the flight safety.

The invention discloses an associated infrastructure system modeling method and device considering human factor influence, electronic equipment and a storage medium, and the method comprises the steps: integrating domain models and human factor models of a plurality of specific key infrastructure systems through employing an advanced system structure standard, and simulating the dynamic real-time interaction between the models. According to the method, the factors representing the personnel reliability and the states and behaviors of the key infrastructure systems associated with the factors are allowed to be mutually and dynamically adjusted, meanwhile, the function association between the infrastructure systems with multiple granularities is allowed to be modeled, and the behaviors of the simulation systems are refined. The method can assist in more reasonable evaluation and prediction of the operation result of the infrastructure system, thereby helping to identify, test and implement a more efficient, reliable and safe working process. Therefore, the problem that deviation occurs in evaluation and prediction of the human error probability by the key infrastructure system is solved.