Energy Demand Forecasting Method Based on "S" Shape Model

Abstract

The invention discloses an energy demand predicting method based on an S-shaped model, belonging to the technical field of national, regional or industrial energy demand. The invention solves the problems of deficiency in theoretical foundation, large result bias and low reliability of other predicting methods. According to an S-shaped physical model between per capita energy consumption and per capita GDP, by applying mathematical methods such as a hyperbolic tangent function, a general energy demand predicting model equation with the per capita GDP as an independent variable is constructed; and through analyzing historical data of different nations or regions, relevant parameters are determined, a predicting object specific equation is established, and the per capita GDP within a given predicting period is substituted into the predicting object specific equation, thus a corresponding predicting result is solved. The energy demand predicting method based on the energy consumption basic law as the guidance has the advantages of universality and pertinence, high reliability and confidence coefficient, practicability and convenience, and easiness in realization and popularization.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The present invention is a quantitative energy demand forecasting method, which is based on the "S" shape physical model between per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption, using the hyperbolic tangent function and other mathematical methods to construct the forecasting technology, used for medium and long-term energy demand forecasting, directly It is used in energy exploration, development, production, utilization, transportation, trade and other fields. Background technique: [0002] At present, energy demand forecasting methods can be generally divided into two categories: qualitative forecasting and quantitative forecasting. [0003] Qualitative forecasting usually gives future energy demand based on subjective experience judgment, the most representative ones are Delphi method and analogy method. The Delphi method is to judge and determine the future energy demand through expert scoring and assignment; the analogy method extracts energy c...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] Aiming at the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention forms a brand-new quantitative prediction technology based on the "S"-shaped physical model between per capita energy consumption and per capita GDP, using mathematical methods such as hyperbolic tangent functions, and fundamentally solves the problem of previous predictions. Lack of theoretical support, large deviations in results, and low credibility

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