Whole-network load prediction method based on local load predicted value comprehensive evaluation

Abstract

The invention discloses a whole-network load prediction method based on local load predicted value comprehensive evaluation. The whole-network load prediction method is characterized in that historical data in a recent sample period are obtained and used as a historical data sample space, then the average proportionality coefficient of each region at a time point t in the historical data sample space is calculated, the proportionality coefficient of each region at the same time point t on a to-be-predicted day is predicted, a multi-index evaluation system of the time point t is built, a comprehensive evaluation index of the time point t is built according to the multi-index evaluation system, q regions with higher priorities at the time point t are selected by means of the comprehensive evaluation index, the selected q regions are used for predicting whole-network system loads at the time point t respectively, the optimal comprehensive models of q different predicted values at the time point t are built, final predicted results of the whole-network system loads are obtained by conducting solving, the optimal comprehensive models are built for whole-day T time points of the to-be-predicted day respectively, and a whole-day load prediction sequence is obtained. The whole-network load prediction method can improve the accuracy of short-term load prediction of a power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a large power grid load forecasting method based on comprehensive evaluation of regional load forecast values, which is used for short-term load forecasting of power systems and belongs to the technical field of power system load forecasting. Background technique [0002] In order to ensure the dynamic balance between power generation power and load power in the power system, it is necessary to make a scientific forecast of the power system load. Load forecasting is an important task of dispatching centers and power grid development planning departments. The results of load forecasting have important guiding value for power grid operation, control, dispatch, planning, construction, etc. It is the basis for scientific development and scientific dispatch of power grids. [0003] Improving the level of load forecasting technology is conducive to planning power consumption management, rationally arranging power grid operation mode ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0008] Since this method needs to predict each regional subnetwork, and for short-term load forecasting, due to the different load stability in each region, the difficulty of forecasting is very different. At the same time, the plant power consumption and network loss data also need to be predicted, so , when using the forecasted load of all areas for subnet accumulation, the accuracy of the system load forecast of the whole network may not be ideal

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