Regional meteorological condition similarity-based large power network load prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional meteorological condition similarity-based large power network load prediction method. The method comprises the steps of firstly obtaining load prediction values of regions in a to-be-predicted day and a load and meteorological history data of a sample space recently; aggregating the regions with similar meteorological conditions according to a probability distance-based synchronous back-substitution elimination technology, dividing an aggregated region into q sub-regions with relatively large meteorological condition difference, then calculating an average proportional coefficient of the q sub-regions at a t moment point in a historical data sample space, and predicting proportional coefficients of the sub-regions at the same t moment point in the to-be-predicted day; and predicting a whole network system load at the t moment point by using the q sub-regions, building an optimal comprehensive model at the t moment point for q different prediction values, performing solving to obtain a final prediction result of the whole network system load at the t moment point, and building optimal comprehensive models for T moment points in the whole to-be-predicted day, thereby obtaining a whole day load prediction sequence. According to the method, the short-term load prediction accuracy of a power system can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the related technical field of electric power system load forecasting, in particular to a large power grid load forecasting method based on the similarity of regional meteorological conditions, which is used for short-term load forecasting of the electric power system. Background technique [0002] In order to ensure the dynamic balance between power generation power and load power in the power system, it is necessary to make a scientific forecast of the power system load. Load forecasting is an important task of dispatching centers and power grid development planning departments. The results of load forecasting have important guiding value for power grid operation, control, dispatch, planning, construction, etc. It is the basis for scientific development and scientific dispatch of power grids. [0003] Improving the level of load forecasting technology is conducive to planning power consumption management, rationally arranging...

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Problems solved by technology

[0010] The present invention aims at the problems existing in the division of the large power grid by using the administrative region where the geographic location is located when predicting the load of the large power grid based on the comprehensive evaluation of the regional load forecast value, and provides a method based on the similarity of regional meteorological conditions. Large power grid load forecasting method to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting in power systems

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