Real-time safety evaluation method of running trends of power grid

Abstract

The invention discloses a real-time safety evaluation method of the running trends of a power grid. The real-time safety evaluation method includes the following steps that internal elements of the power grid are divided; the importance degrees of the regional electricity utilizing sides are determined; the importance degrees of the regional electricity generating sides are obtained; the importance degrees of connecting lines are obtained; normalization processing is performed on the importance degrees of the regional electricity utilizing sides, the importance degrees of the regional electricity generating sides and the importance degrees of the connecting lines; unified quantization is performed on impact events of the power grid; the probabilities of any internal element of the power grid at different running trend levels are determined, and an evaluation matrix is obtained; the running trends of the internal elements of the power grid are determined. The real-time safety evaluation method can meet the requirement for rapidity of online evaluation, can guarantee the comprehensiveness of state indicators and greatly reduces the calculation amount on the premise that the calculation precision is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid operation trend security assessment, in particular to a real-time security assessment method for power grid operation trend. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of China's power grid and the construction of intelligent power grids, the operation mode of the power grid will become more complicated, and the control will become more difficult. How to accurately, quickly and comprehensively evaluate the safety level of the power grid and formulate the Reasonable control strategies and emergency plans have become the key to avoiding large-scale power outages; the real-time security assessment of the power grid can be roughly divided into two aspects: the operating status of the power grid and the future trend assessment of the power grid, referred to as the situation assessment; among them, the state refers to the power grid at a single time. The static state of the section incl...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, there are two types of power grid security assessment methods, one of which is to give a deterministic state index system based on the evaluation of the power grid operating state, such as the literature "Determination of Static Voltage Stability Critical Point Based on Optimal Multiplier Power Flow", "Temporary Deterministic method and probabilistic method in state stability analysis" and so on to evaluate the security of the power grid from a single aspect such as voltage stability point, power angle stability, and topology vulnerability, such as the document "Indicator system and method for power grid security evaluation The evaluation index system proposed in "Includes five aspects: safe power supply capability, static voltage safety, topology vulnerability, transient safety, and risk index, and establishes a safety index system from different aspects; another type of method is based on expectations. The fault set gives the future operation risk index of the power grid, such as the quantitative analysis of the operating state of the power system in the literature "Preventive Control Decision Analysis of Risk-Based Power System Safety Early Warning" and converts it into a risk index. According to the system low voltage, overload and voltage instability risk indicators to comprehensively characterize the safety level of the system. For example, in the document "Power Grid Security Risk Management and Control System Oriented to Dispatch Operation (2) Risk Index System Evaluation Method and Application Strategy", the event limit risk and event It can be seen from the above that the deterministic index system can intuitively and comprehensively reflect the current real-time operation status of the power grid, so it is widely used; but the deterministic index system only focuses on the current state of the power grid. , there is a lack of assessment of the power grid operation trend, and the dispatchers are more concerned about the development trend of the power grid, so this kind of deterministic index system in the real-time security assessment cannot meet the dispatching needs well; Risk analysis of indicators to obtain the current system operation trend, because the indicator system itself is very complicated, and there are many factors affecting the trend change, resulting in a huge amount of calculation, which cannot meet the speed requirements of real-time security assessment of the power grid; in addition, the risk of the development trend of the power grid The research on indicators focuses on the detailed description of a single aspect or the simplification of the indicator system, and this approach will lead to incomplete trend assessment and is difficult to be practical

[0004] Therefore, the key to assessing the trend of power grid operation is to accurately, quickly and comprehensively judge the trend of power grid operation in a short period of time; since the power grid is a huge dynamic system, evaluating the trend of each aspect of the operation status of the entire network will cause huge The amount of calculation is not realistic in real-time evaluation; at the same time, since the problem focuses on short-term dynamic behavior, the probability of internal and external events can be clarified, so the trend of power grid operation trend can also be clarified with high probability, which has the basis for analysis , but even so, due to the large scale of the system and many factors involved in the operation, the analysis is still very complicated and difficult to implement online

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