Method and device for evaluating gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline network

Abstract

The invention provides a method and device for evaluating the gas supply reliability of a natural gas pipeline network, and relates to the technical field of a natural gas transmission technique. The method includes: establishing a capacity network of the natural gas pipeline network; determining a first failure probability of each pipeline unit in the preset failure mode, and determining first state distribution of each pipeline unit during preset time; determining a second failure probability of each natural gas station unit, and determining second state distribution of each natural gas station unit during preset time; updating the capacity network in real time; supplying gas to each user in the natural gas pipeline network, and determining gas supply information of each user; and determining the gas supply reliability of each user and the average lack amount of each user according to the gas supply information of each user. The method and device can accurately evaluate the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline network in the condition of different interference factors, and solves the problem that advantages and disadvantages of gas supply of the natural gas pipeline network are difficult to confirm.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of natural gas transmission, in particular to an evaluation method and device for gas supply reliability of a natural gas pipeline network. Background technique [0002] At present, the natural gas pipeline network is the main means of natural gas transportation, and it is also the link connecting resources and markets. In recent years, the scale of China's natural gas pipeline network has continued to expand, and the demand for clean energy such as natural gas has continued to increase. The importance of ensuring reliable gas supply from the natural gas pipeline network has become increasingly prominent. The gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline network refers to the ability of the natural gas pipeline network to meet the gas demand of users under the interference of various uncertain factors within a period of time. At present, the reliability evaluation of natural gas pipeline network is in ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Embodiments of the present invention provide a method and device for evaluating the reliability of natural gas pipeline network gas supply to solve the problem that there is current...

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