A wind power prediction method based on twenty-four solar terms

A technology for wind power prediction and twenty-four solar terms, applied in the field of wind farms, can solve problems such as large wind power prediction errors, and achieve the effect of improving prediction accuracy and reducing impact

Active Publication Date: 2021-01-08
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING) +1
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Problems solved by technology

At present, the wind power prediction error is relatively large, and the accuracy of numerical weather prediction, the representativeness and quantity of training samples, prediction algorithms and parameter settings are the main sources of wind power prediction error

Method used

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  • A wind power prediction method based on twenty-four solar terms
  • A wind power prediction method based on twenty-four solar terms
  • A wind power prediction method based on twenty-four solar terms

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Embodiment Construction

[0014] The present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. attached figure 1 is the flow chart of the wind power prediction method based on the twenty-four solar terms, such as figure 1 As shown, this method collects the numerical weather forecast data of the specified wind farm required for wind farm power prediction, the twenty-four solar terms information of the selected year, and the operating data of the wind farm, and cleans and preprocesses the data to extract the solar terms of the specified year Data cleaning and preprocessing include rationality testing and screening, elimination of wrong data, interpolation and correction. According to the time nodes of the twenty-four solar terms, the preprocessed numerical weather forecast data of the wind farm and the measured output power data of the wind farm are divided, and 24 sets of data training sample sets corresponding to the solar terms are est...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power plants, and particularly relates to a wind power prediction method based on twenty-four solar terms. An influence on wind power prediction accuracy by season and climate change factors is considered, and the invention puts forward the wind power prediction method based on twenty-four solar terms. By use of the method, from perspectives of prediction model establishment and sample division, a situation that the climate state of a current prediction moment can be more favorably represented by a meteorological data sample set in the same solar term is considered; according to the time nodes of the twenty-four solar terms, sample data is divided, a prediction model is established by wind power plant data in the same solar term, so that the influence by season and climate changes can be reduced to a certain degree, and wind power prediction accuracy is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind farms, and in particular relates to a wind power prediction method based on the twenty-four solar terms. Background technique [0002] The large impact of the random fluctuation of wind energy on the power grid has brought great challenges to the development of the wind power industry. At present, the wind power prediction error is relatively large, and the accuracy of numerical weather prediction, representativeness and quantity of training samples, prediction algorithm and parameter setting are the main sources of wind power prediction error. Among them, the influence of numerical weather prediction and training samples is the most significant. When climate changes or seasons change, due to changes in wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and humidity, the randomness and diversity of natural wind fluctuations increase the difficulty of numerical weather prediction and training sample constructi...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F113/06
CPCG06F30/20
Inventor 韩爽张路娜刘永前阎洁李莉单葆国
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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