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A Bayesian evaluation method and system for spare parts reliability based on multi-source fusion
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A reliability and spare parts technology, applied in computer parts, instruments, calculations, etc., can solve problems such as the difference between reliability laws and design parameters, the backlog of spare parts, and the increase in the number of guarantee failures.
Active Publication Date: 2021-07-16
NAVAL UNIV OF ENG PLA
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[0002] When the actual reliability rules of spare parts are inconsistent with the design parameters, it will lead to an increase in the number of support failures or a backlog of spare parts
In special working environments, such as marine working environments such as ships, the difference between the actual reliability law and the design parameters will be greater
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Embodiment 1
[0067] Embodiment 1 provided by the present invention is an embodiment of a spare parts according to a multi-source fusion, such as figure 1 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention is provided, a spare parts, a spare parts, a spare part, including:
[0068] Step 1, determine the priority distribution of one information source of the spare part and the likelihood weight coefficient of the priority distribution of the other information sources, the likelihood weight coefficient is the ratio of the likelihood function of the prior distribution of two information sources.
[0069] Spare parts is not amendable during the execution task, and its life is distributed from the index, the probability density function is:
[0070] f (t) = λexp (-λt)
[0071] Where T is time, λ is an unknown parameter indicating the spare parts failure rate, μ = 1 / λ is the average life of spare parts.
[0072] From the perspective of the equipment full life cycle, the information sources of spare p...
Embodiment 2
[0141] Embodiment 2, which is provided by the present invention, is an embodiment of a multi-source fusion of a spare parts reliability Bayes evaluation system, such as figure 2 As shown in the present embodiment, the system includes: a priority distribution determination module 2, a spare parts failure ratio, a spare parts, a spare parts, a spare parts, a Bayes evaluation module 3;
[0142] Likelihood weight coefficient determination module 1, used to determine the priority distribution of a source of information from all kinds of spare parts reliability, the likelihood weight coefficient of the other information sources, the likelihood weight coefficient is the priority distribution of two information sources. The ratio of the likelihood function;
[0143] A priority distribution determination module 2 for spare parts failure rate, is used to fusion according to each likelihood weight coefficient to obtain a priority distribution of spare parts failure rates;
[0144] Spare Part...
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a Bayesian assessment method and system for spare parts reliability based on multi-source fusion, including: determining the prior distribution of one information source and the likelihood weight coefficients of the prior distributions of other information sources for determining the reliability of spare parts, The likelihood weight coefficient is the ratio of the likelihood functions of the prior distribution of the two information sources; according to each likelihood weight coefficient, each information source is fused to obtain the prior distribution of the failure rate of the spare part; the likelihood function corresponding to the guarantee task result is determined, According to the likelihood function corresponding to the guarantee task results and the prior distribution of the spare parts failure rate, the posterior distribution of the spare parts failure rate is determined, and the Bayesian evaluation result of the spare parts reliability is obtained. Aiming at the characteristics of less on-site use data of the spare parts, the likelihood weight is adopted The coefficients quantify the credibility of reliability information from different sources, which can reduce the influence of human factors, effectively and reasonably integrate the reliability information sources of spare parts to conduct reliability evaluation, and have better estimation accuracy.
Description
Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of spare parts reliability estimates, and more particularly to a spare parts, a spare parts, a spare parts, a radius evaluation method, and a system. Background technique [0002] When the actual reliability law of spare parts is inconsistent with the design parameters, it will result in a case where the number of failures of the guarantee is increased or the spare parts backlog. In a special working environment, such as shipping environment, such as ships, will lead to larger reliability laws and design parameters. [0003] There are many source sources in the spare parts reliability evaluation method. Different in different information sources have different effectiveness of the spare parts reliability evaluation, and the individual information sources can improve the accuracy of the spare parts reliability assessment results. Inventive content [0004] The present invention provides a technical problem in the p...
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