Industrial timber forest productivity prediction method based on species distribution and productivity coupling

Abstract

The invention discloses an industrial timber forest productivity prediction method based on species distribution and productivity coupling. The method comprises the steps of employing a maximum entropy model to simulate the suitability of an industrial timber forest, building a coupling relation between the predicted environmental suitability and the productivity value of the industrial timber forest, and obtaining an environmental suitability-productivity conversion equation; and then, carrying out habitat simulation under various different intensity climate change scenes in the future, and carrying out further grid calculation on the obtained global environment suitability map layer through the conversion equation between productivity and environmental suitability; and finally, obtainingthe global suitable zone and production potential of the industrial timber forest. The species distribution model is combined with published ground survey biomass data to predict the future forest productivity, so that global-scale high-precision simulation is realized, and large-scale future biomass distribution simulation can be performed in combination with the characteristics of future climatic changes; and the method is of great significance to industrial timber forest afforestation area selection and future productivity maintenance or promotion.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of forest productivity prediction, in particular to a method for predicting future industrial timber forest productivity based on the coupling of species distribution and productivity. Background technique [0002] The shortage of timber has always been a global problem, and the shortage of timber in my country is particularly serious. At present, my country is the world's largest timber importer and second largest timber consumer. In order to meet the production and living needs of the people, my country can only rely on increasing imports to maintain timber supply. In recent years, the proportion of my country's imported timber in domestic timber consumption has risen from 27.9% in 2000 to 50.7% in 2014. Even with increased timber imports, my country's annual timber gap still reaches 300 million cubic meters. In the context of such a shortage of timber, the production maintenance or improvement of indus...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although previous ground surveys, satellite remote sensing and other means can realize large-scale biomass simulation and measurement, it is difficult to predict future productivity in combination with future climate change models

Although ecosystem process models can simulate future forest productivity under climate change, such models need to rely on multiple physiological indicators such as plant photosynthetic rate and leaf porosity, so they often cannot achieve global large-scale simulations

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