Environmental quality prediction method based on social economic data

An environmental quality and socio-economic technology, applied in the field of environmental quality prediction based on socio-economic data, can solve problems such as poor timeliness of data and insufficient prediction accuracy, so as to improve ability and level, improve timeliness and prediction accuracy, and solve Statistical lag effects

Pending Publication Date: 2021-06-29
四川省环境政策研究与规划院
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  • Abstract
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] The purpose of the present invention is to address the deficiencies of the prior art, provide an environmental quality prediction method based on social and economic data, solve the problems of poor data timeliness and insufficient prediction accura

Method used

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  • Environmental quality prediction method based on social economic data
  • Environmental quality prediction method based on social economic data
  • Environmental quality prediction method based on social economic data

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Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0026] This embodiment carries out the prediction of the environmental quality of Sichuan Province in 2020, and the pollutants of the predicted environmental quality include SO 2 , the economic data and policy information introduced in the forecast are as follows:

[0027] (1) Data collection

[0028] Economic data (data source: National Bureau of Statistics):

[0029]

[0030]

[0031] Environmental quality data in 2019 (source: Sichuan Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment):

[0032]

[0033] Policy Information Extraction (Source: Organized from Sichuan Economic and Information Department):

[0034]

[0035]

[0036] SO emissions from cement manufacturing enterprises 2 For example:

[0037] Cement clinker output in Sichuan Province in 2019X k It is 113.38 million tons. According to the "Technical Specifications for Application and Issuance of Pollutant Discharge Permits for Cement Industry" (HJ 847-2017) and "Emission Standards of Air Pollutant...

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Abstract

The invention provides an environment quality prediction method based on social economic data, which establishes a quantitative coupling relation between economy and environment by introducing economic data with higher timeliness and more predictable trend. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, predicting the trend of economic data to obtain a next-period economic data predicted value; then, calculating a prediction result according to a certain pollutant emission coefficient, and superposing a policy factor on the basis to obtain a pollutant emission prediction value; and finally, calculating a corresponding environment quality predicted value through the pollutant emission predicted value. According to the method, the problems of poor data timeliness and insufficient prediction accuracy of an existing environment quality prediction method can be solved, the timeliness and prediction accuracy of environment quality prediction data are improved, and the ability and the level of an ecological environment department participating in macroscopic decision making are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of environmental quality prediction, in particular to an environmental quality prediction method based on socioeconomic data. Background technique [0002] Environmental quality prediction refers to the activity of predicting the impact of social and economic activities on environmental quality changes, and is the basis of environmental decision-making and management. Through environmental quality prediction, it is possible to discover environmental pollution trends and emerging problems in advance, and propose targeted solutions or policy suggestions from the perspective of ecological environmental protection, provide technical support for environmental management decisions, and effectively promote high-level protection of the ecological environment. high-quality economic development. [0003] 201811327592.2 Provides a calculation method for calculating the pollutant discharge surface concentration in the area to be...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G16C20/70G16C20/20
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26G16C20/70G16C20/20
Inventor 黄庆罗彬王恒谢怡田犀马丽雅杜敏张卫兵闫卫坡罗静雯盛祖添张豇浜张雨晴蒲灵
Owner 四川省环境政策研究与规划院
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