Method and system for assessing exploration prospect risk and uncertainty

Abstract

A method and system for integrating multiple analytical processes for evaluating risk and uncertainty elements of a petroleum system. The integrated environment provides a consistent means of analysis for evaluating multiple petroleum systems including exploration prospects and reservoirs, wherein multiple evaluation tools can be used and each of the tools has a similar ''look'' and ''feel'' so that a user can efficiently utilize all of the tools in the integrated environment. The evaluation tools analyze common data sets within the integrated environment so that a consistent evaluation of a petroleum system can be performed.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates generally to methods and systems for assessing risk and uncertainty elements of an exploration prospect prior to drilling a well, and more particularly, to enhancing hydrocarbon acquisition and development success rate. Background technique [0002] Subsurface assessment of oil and gas reservoirs has always been limited by data quality and availability, resources, timing and cost. Therefore, the risks and uncertainties associated with the assessment of prospects and / or reservoirs should be considered when making decisions. Given some prescribed probability distributions, it is desirable that decision analysis methods for assessing and informing risk in terms of outcomes be unbiased and precise. However, comparisons of predicted and actual outputs of projects generally show more project outputs below than above the median forecast (P50) value, suggesting that the input probability distributions typically used are imprecis...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] While prior art methods are capable of measuring uncertainty in specific risk aspects of a specific reservoir, there is currently no known method for evaluating overall risk and uncertainty in an integrated setting at the exploration prospect level

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