Harbour district traffic flow forecasting method under reserved harbour concentration mode

A prediction method and technology of traffic flow, applied in the direction of traffic flow detection, etc., can solve problems such as difficult daily traffic flow prediction

Active Publication Date: 2010-07-14
TIANJIN MUNICIPAL ENG DESIGN & RES INST
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] Urban road traffic demand is mainly based on people's travel, and is affected by many uncertain factors such as changes in the na...

Method used

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  • Harbour district traffic flow forecasting method under reserved harbour concentration mode
  • Harbour district traffic flow forecasting method under reserved harbour concentration mode
  • Harbour district traffic flow forecasting method under reserved harbour concentration mode

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Embodiment Construction

[0031] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0032] Under the pre-arrival mode, during the second port call, the traffic demand in the port area is mainly driven by the arrival of ships, which is related to the number of ships at the port, the size of the ship, the distribution of berths, the time of port call, the style of cargo collection and the characteristics of freight forwarding.

[0033] 1.1 The impact of the number of ships at the port, the size of the ships, and the distribution of berths

[0034] The number of ships, ship capacity, and berth distribution at the port have a direct impact on the total traffic demand at the port, and determine the size of the total OD from the rear yard to the front yard and the direction of traffic flow within the time period of the port. In order to predict the traffic flow in the port area more accurately, these factors can be quantified. Fir...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a harbour district traffic flow forecasting method under a reserved harbour concentration mode, which belongs to the technical field of harbour district traffic control and comprises the following steps of: dividing traffic generation and attraction areas to obtain the time-interval distribution rule of the historical traffic volume of each traffic generation area and each traffic attraction area to determine the traffic attraction area and the traffic volume; determining a corresponding back-up yard after a forwarder and a cargo collection style are obtained by issuing dynamic information, thereby obtaining the traffic generation area and the traffic volume; forecasting the harbour concentration time-interval traffic volume of each current area; calculating the harbour concentration vehicle OD distribution of the generation areas and the attraction areas, and adding the commuting OD of historical statistics to obtain total OD which corresponds to the generation areas and the attraction areas; and estimating the distribution of the traffic volume on each road section. The invention can basically reflect the condition of the actual traffic flow, can be used for forecasting the development tendency of the traffic flow and carry out traffic control and dispersion in advance, thereby preventing jam points from being generated and jam areas from extending.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of port traffic management and relates to a port traffic flow prediction method. Background technique [0002] The long-term experience in traffic management and planning in the port area shows that without accurate traffic flow forecasting, the above measures cannot effectively solve the existing traffic problems in the port. The development of urban traffic flow forecasting technology provides a good experience for traffic flow forecasting in the port area, but the complexity and uncertainty of the traffic in the port area determine that it is necessary to carry out targeted research on traffic flow forecasting methods in the port area to meet The need for scientific planning and management of port traffic. [0003] The urban traffic flow forecasting method cannot be directly used in port area traffic flow forecasting. It can be seen from the retrieved data that basically the existing traffic flow managem...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01
Inventor 白子建钟石泉冯炜周骊巍黄文徐建平王晓华龚凤刚贺海王新歧张勇张朝清王寅弘张占领申婵张洋康娟萍
Owner TIANJIN MUNICIPAL ENG DESIGN & RES INST
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