Method for forecasting water bloom and analyzing factors on basis of multivariate cyclostationary time sequence analysis and grey theory

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for forecasting water bloom and analyzing factors on the basis of multivariate cyclostationary time sequence analysis and a grey theory, and belongs to the technical field of environmental engineering. The method includes acquiring and preprocessing monitoring data; screening characteristic factors; modeling a time sequence of the characteristic factors; and forecasting the time sequence of the characteristic factors and analyzing the characteristic factors. A multivariate cyclostationary property of the multivariate time sequence is inspected, a process for screening the characteristic factors of the water bloom is provided, necessary conditions for reasonably modeling the multivariate time sequence of the characteristic factors of the water bloom are provided, and a basis is also provided for analyzing the characteristic factors of the water bloom. In addition, a procedure for forming the water bloom due to the multiple characteristic factors is comprehensively described, and accordingly the accuracy and the reliability of a water bloom forecasting result are improved. Besides, closeness degrees of relations among the various influencing factors and the water bloom can be obtained according to errors among the water bloom forecasting result given by the method and measured data.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a water bloom prediction and factor analysis method, belonging to the technical field of environmental engineering. Background technique [0002] Water bloom refers to a phenomenon in which algae bloom and accumulate explosively and reach a certain concentration when there are suitable environmental conditions such as light, water temperature, climate and hydrology that are conducive to the growth and accumulation of algae in the current eutrophic water body. Large-scale water bloom is very harmful. It will not only damage the structure and function of water ecosystems and endanger human health, but also reduce the efficiency of water resources utilization, threaten the sustainable development and utilization of water resources, and cause huge economic losses. On the whole, there is still a lack of technologies and methods that can effectively control water blooms in the short term. Therefore, before the blooms are effectively cont...

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Problems solved by technology

[0014] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the inaccurate prediction results of existing water blooms, the difficulty of modeling the interaction between multiple characteristic factors in the formation of water blooms, and the determination of the degree of correlation between different characteristic factors and water blooms. Adopting technical means based on multivariate periodic stationary time-series analysis and gray theory, through the time-series modeling and analysis of characteristic factors in the formation process of water blooms, the prediction effect and factor analysis results of water blooms that are more in line with the actual situation can be obtained

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