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A Bayesian Network Prediction Model Based Wind Power Interval Prediction Method

A technology of Bayesian network and prediction method, which is applied in the field of wind power interval prediction of Bayesian network prediction model

Active Publication Date: 2022-05-17
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] Therefore, it is hoped that there is a wind power interval prediction method based on Bayesian network prediction model to solve the problems of traditional wind power point prediction and non-parametric estimation methods in the prior art

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  • A Bayesian Network Prediction Model Based Wind Power Interval Prediction Method
  • A Bayesian Network Prediction Model Based Wind Power Interval Prediction Method
  • A Bayesian Network Prediction Model Based Wind Power Interval Prediction Method

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Embodiment Construction

[0048] In order to make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described in more detail below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. In the drawings, the same or similar reference numerals denote the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions throughout. The described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the invention. The embodiments described below by referring to the figures are exemplary and are intended to explain the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0049] The present invention adopts the actual wind power data and th...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a wind power interval prediction method of a Bayesian network prediction model. According to the predicted wind speed and actual power data obtained through preprocessing, a Bayesian network relationship with correlation is established, and the range change amplitude is obtained by calculation and comparison. parameter β High and beta Low The range of change, using the genetic optimization algorithm to obtain the optimal interval change amplitude β by optimizing the fitness value High_best and beta High_best , bring back the Bayesian network model and then bring in the test data to obtain the wind power prediction interval, and evaluate the prediction results through various evaluation indicators. Not only can the fluctuation range of predicted wind power be obtained, but also its reliability can be effectively evaluated to provide an effective reference for power dispatching decisions.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind power generation, in particular to a wind power interval prediction method of a Bayesian network prediction model. Background technique [0002] With the massive consumption of fossil energy and the increasing pressure of environmental protection, wind energy, as a renewable and clean energy, has been paid more and more attention by countries all over the world. Affected by many factors such as terrain, climate and surrounding environment, wind power generation has strong intermittency, volatility and uncertainty, which brings harm to the power generation planning and economic dispatch of the power system, and is not conducive to the safety and stability of the traditional power grid. operation, hindering the further promotion and application of wind power. Therefore, large-scale wind power grid-connected operation requires accurate wind power forecasting. [0003] The main forecasting models at th...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/12G06K9/62
CPCG06N3/126G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F18/24155
Inventor 杨锡运米尔扎提·买合木提叶天泽吕微
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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