Landing Tropical Cyclone Daily Precipitation Forecast System
A forecasting system, a technology for tropical cyclones, applied in weather forecasting, meteorology, instruments, etc.
Active Publication Date: 2021-07-23
CHINESE ACAD OF METEOROLOGICAL SCI
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Problems solved by technology
However, there is currently a lack of forecasting techniques for the DSAEF model of daily precipitation for landfalling tropical cyclones
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[0018] In order to make the purpose, content, and advantages of the present invention clearer, the specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.
[0019] figure 1 Shown is the block diagram of the landing tropical cyclone (landing TC) daily precipitation forecasting system based on power-statistics-similar ensemble forecast model of the present invention, as figure 1 As shown, the daily precipitation forecast system for landfall tropical cyclones of the present invention includes: a generalized initial value construction module 1 , an initial value similarity discrimination module 2 , and a TC precipitation ensemble forecast module 3 .
[0020] Such as figure 1 As shown, the generalized initial value building block 1, which receives the path of the historical TC, and is used to process and obtain the target TC path, the target TC and the TC speed information of ...
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The present invention relates to a daily precipitation forecasting system for a landing tropical cyclone of the present invention, which includes: a generalized initial value construction module, which receives the path of a historical TC, obtains the forecast path of a target TC at the moment when a certain path starts reporting, and converts the target The observation path of the TC forecast path before the start time of the path is merged into the target TC path; the TC moving speed information of the target TC and historical TC in a specific daily scale time period is obtained through processing; the initial value similarity discrimination module constructs a daily scale similar area , identify the closest point and the shortest distance of the historical TC, calculate the similarity between the historical TC path and the target TC path, mark the historical TC whose speed difference with the target TC reaches the threshold, and mark the historical TC whose shortest distance is greater than a certain threshold, select m The best similar historical TCs are sent to the ensemble forecast module; the ensemble forecast module obtains the specific daily precipitation field of the best historical TC and assembles them. The invention has good forecasting performance for the daily precipitation of TC landed in China.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a weather forecast technology, in particular to a daily precipitation forecast system for landfall tropical cyclones based on a dynamic-statistical-similar ensemble forecast model. Background technique [0002] For weather forecasting, some scholars put forward the theory (model) of Dynamical Statistical Similarity Ensemble Forecast (DSAEF) based on the accurate model. Subsequently, the DSAEF forecasting technology (DSAEF_LTP_A 1.0 system) for the precipitation of landfalling tropical cyclones came into being, and examples proved that the forecasting performance of this system is good. However, there is currently a lack of forecasting techniques for the DSAEF model of precipitation on landfall tropical cyclones days. The daily precipitation forecast system for landfall tropical cyclones of the present invention is the forecasting technique (DSAEF_LTP_D 1.0 system) for the daily precipitation of landfall tropical cyclones by DS...
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IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G06K9/62
CPCG01W1/10G06F18/22
Inventor 贾作任福民
Owner CHINESE ACAD OF METEOROLOGICAL SCI