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A multi-value model integrated forecasting method and device

A technology of numerical model and forecast data, applied in the direction of design optimization/simulation, etc., can solve the problems of system deviation and low accuracy of integrated forecast of multiple numerical models, and achieve the effect of improving precision and accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2021-12-03
中国气象局公共气象服务中心
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Problems solved by technology

However, due to the above-mentioned multi-numerical model integrated forecast method, due to the systematic deviation of various numerical model forecasts and the independence of various numerical model forecasts, the accuracy of multi-numeric model integrated forecast is not high.

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  • A multi-value model integrated forecasting method and device
  • A multi-value model integrated forecasting method and device
  • A multi-value model integrated forecasting method and device

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Embodiment Construction

[0057] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only It is a part of embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. The components of the embodiments of the invention generally described and illustrated in the figures herein may be arranged and designed in a variety of different configurations. Accordingly, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the invention provided in the accompanying drawings is not intended to limit the scope of the claimed invention, but merely represents selected embodiments of the invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without making...

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Abstract

The present invention provides a multiple numerical model integrated forecasting method and device. The method includes: collecting numerical model forecast data, grid point live observation data and terrain data of the target area; performing downscale processing on the numerical model forecast data and terrain data to obtain Numerical model downscaling forecast data; according to the pre-built multi-mode feature extraction network, the feature extraction of space-time aggregation features is performed on the numerical model down-scaling forecast data; the space-time aggregation features are fused to obtain splicing and fusion features; Feature extraction is performed on the observed data to obtain grid point splicing and fusion features; grid point splicing and fusion features and splicing fusion features are input into the pre-built live correction network to obtain dimension splicing feature representation; Concatenating feature representations for ensemble forecasting. It can improve the accuracy of multi-value model integration forecast.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of meteorological forecasting, in particular to a multi-value model integrated forecasting method and device. Background technique [0002] Multi-numeric model integrated forecasting is a weather forecasting technology that integrates the forecast results of multiple numerical models. At present, the multi-valued model integrated forecast method uses the forecast deviation rate of each numerical model to carry out multi-valued model integrated forecast, mostly based on Kalman filter, deviation elimination ensemble average, model weighted average, least squares weighted average and simple ensemble average, etc., to achieve The method is simple and easy to operate. However, due to the above-mentioned multi-numerical model integrated forecasting method, due to the systematic deviation of various numerical model forecasts and the independence of various numerical model forecasts, the accuracy of multi-n...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/27
CPCG06F30/27
Inventor 于廷照匡秋明胡骏楠
Owner 中国气象局公共气象服务中心
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