Water intake tunnel progress risk analysis method considering emotion factors

Abstract

The invention discloses a water intake tunnel progress risk analysis method considering an emotion factor. The method comprises the following steps: making an analysis assumption; analyzing to obtain a key path of the water intake tunnel; classifying and identifying factors influencing the progress by adopting a structure decomposition method; the shutdown probability and the shutdown day number of each working procedure of the water intake tunnel are obtained through analysis; constructing an emotion function; establishing a construction period prediction model considering emotion factors; establishing a construction period prediction model considering the surrounding rock category; fitting to obtain an expected construction period and completion probability model formula; and predicting the expected construction period and the completion probability. According to the method, in the prediction of the construction period and the completion probability, an evaluator can finely quantify the evaluation process and the evaluation result, the risk probability can be quantitatively obtained, more accurate reference can be provided for a decision maker to judge the risk, a more scientific basis is provided for formulation of measures, and the method has the advantages of being simple and clear in analysis process, high in accuracy and the like. The method has the advantages of high integration degree with engineering practice, scientific and practical calculation results and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for analyzing the progress risk of a water intake tunnel considering emotional factors, and belongs to the technical field of engineering construction and project management. Background technique [0002] During the construction of water intake tunnels, there are many risk-influencing factors, the combination of construction procedures is complex and overlapping, each procedure has the characteristics of high construction intensity, large mutual interference, and difficulty in risk control. In order to analyze and evaluate tunnel construction risks, commonly used methods include: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Evaluation (FE), Efficiency Coefficient Method, Neural Network Algorithm, Extension Theory, etc. These methods analyze and predict less progress risks from a refined perspective, and cause little impact on the attitude of evaluators. The internal correlation between the prediction results and completion ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

When using this method, the evaluators did not list the scoring basis in detail, and there is some uncertainty in the evaluation results

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