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Water intake tunnel progress risk analysis method considering emotion factors

A technology for water intake tunnels and risk analysis, which is applied in the fields of instruments, random CAD, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of uncertainty in the evaluation results, and the evaluators do not list the scoring basis in detail, and achieves a high degree of fit and scientific calculation results. , the effect of simple analysis process

Pending Publication Date: 2022-05-13
JIANGSU VOCATIONAL INST OF ARCHITECTURAL TECH
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  • Description
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

When using this method, the evaluators did not list the scoring basis in detail, and there is some uncertainty in the evaluation results

Method used

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  • Water intake tunnel progress risk analysis method considering emotion factors
  • Water intake tunnel progress risk analysis method considering emotion factors
  • Water intake tunnel progress risk analysis method considering emotion factors

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Embodiment 1

[0066] A method for analyzing the progress risk of water intake tunnels considering emotional factors, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0067] Step 1. Analytical assumptions

[0068] For ease of analysis, the present invention records the reference power plant unit as 1# unit, and the power station unit to be evaluated as 2# unit;

[0069] Step 2. Analyze the critical path of the intake tunnel

[0070] Analyze the critical path of the water intake tunnel to obtain the key construction procedures, assuming that there are n key construction procedures;

[0071] After analysis, the key path of the water intake tunnel is: construction preparation → entry into the tunnel → excavation and support → lining → grouting in the tunnel → tunnel wall repair and anti-corrosion construction (repair and anti-corrosion), n=6;

[0072] Step 3: Use the structural decomposition method to classify and identify the factors that affect the progress

[0073] Using the structural ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a water intake tunnel progress risk analysis method considering an emotion factor. The method comprises the following steps: making an analysis assumption; analyzing to obtain a key path of the water intake tunnel; classifying and identifying factors influencing the progress by adopting a structure decomposition method; the shutdown probability and the shutdown day number of each working procedure of the water intake tunnel are obtained through analysis; constructing an emotion function; establishing a construction period prediction model considering emotion factors; establishing a construction period prediction model considering the surrounding rock category; fitting to obtain an expected construction period and completion probability model formula; and predicting the expected construction period and the completion probability. According to the method, in the prediction of the construction period and the completion probability, an evaluator can finely quantify the evaluation process and the evaluation result, the risk probability can be quantitatively obtained, more accurate reference can be provided for a decision maker to judge the risk, a more scientific basis is provided for formulation of measures, and the method has the advantages of being simple and clear in analysis process, high in accuracy and the like. The method has the advantages of high integration degree with engineering practice, scientific and practical calculation results and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for analyzing the progress risk of a water intake tunnel considering emotional factors, and belongs to the technical field of engineering construction and project management. Background technique [0002] During the construction of water intake tunnels, there are many risk-influencing factors, the combination of construction procedures is complex and overlapping, each procedure has the characteristics of high construction intensity, large mutual interference, and difficulty in risk control. In order to analyze and evaluate tunnel construction risks, commonly used methods include: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Evaluation (FE), Efficiency Coefficient Method, Neural Network Algorithm, Extension Theory, etc. These methods analyze and predict less progress risks from a refined perspective, and cause little impact on the attitude of evaluators. The internal correlation between the prediction results and completion ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q10/10G06Q50/08G06F30/13G06F30/20G06F111/08G06F119/12
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0635G06Q10/06393G06Q10/103G06Q50/08G06F30/13G06F30/20G06F2111/08G06F2119/12
Inventor 李新黄健朱先杰孙威李春伟薛振宁李维马清坡王晓利马勇陶金海李子豪孙源崔新伟冯浚轩
Owner JIANGSU VOCATIONAL INST OF ARCHITECTURAL TECH
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