Method and device for predicting telecom traffic

Abstract

The invention provides a method and device for predicting telecom traffic. The method comprises the following steps: determining the prediction granulation of the telecom traffic; selecting a historical sample and a prediction sample; respectively calculating the growth rates and the initial values of the telecom traffics of the historical sample and the prediction sample by using a unary linear regression model; calculating the prediction traffics of the historical sample and the prediction sample; reading the actual traffic of the historical sample; and adjusting the second prediction traffic according to the deviation between the traffic of first prediction and the actual traffic to obtain the prediction traffic adjusted by a user. The behavior mode of the user is obtained through analyzing the deviation between the linear prediction value and the actual value in the historical sample, and accordingly, the linear prediction value of future telecom traffic data is adjusted to obtain more accurate telecom network traffic, thereby providing decision support for the user to plan, organize and manage network more accurately.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of telecommunication networks, in particular to a method and device for predicting telecommunication traffic. Background technique [0002] Telecommunications business volume is the amount of telecommunications information that needs to be transmitted, and is the main basis for accounting for various types of network element equipment, production personnel, and organization of production, such as traffic volume, MMS volume, and SMS volume. The telecommunications business is characterized by relatively large changes in business volume, uneven busy and idle, and is significantly affected by holidays. [0003] Telecom business volume forecasting is to obtain the laws and characteristics of telecommunication system traffic changes from relevant historical records, establish a mathematical model that can describe the characteristics of telecommunication traffic changes, and then use this mathematical model to pr...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, for telecommunication networks with relatively large business changes and significant impacts on holidays, these methods are difficult to obtain high-precision predictions.

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