Load forecasting method of power distribution network with distributed power supply

Abstract

The invention provides a load forecasting method of a power distribution network with a distributed power supply. The distributed power supply comprises a wind generator set and a photovoltaic power generation system. The load forecasting method of the power distribution network includes the following steps that load forecasting information is collected; a load year characteristic curve of a planning region is forecasted, a year power output characteristic curve of the distributed power supply is forecasted; a year load characteristic curve of the power distribution network with the distributed power supply is forecasted. According to the load forecasting method, random characteristics of power output of the distributed power supply are considered, a year power output curve of the distributed power supply is simulated through Monte Carlo simulation, a total load characteristic curve of the power distribution network is obtained on the basis of different load forecasting, and finally a net load year characteristic curve of the power distribution network is obtained by synthesizing total load characteristics and distributed power supply power output characteristics and based on the time characteristic stacking principle. Thus, the load forecasting problem of the power distribution network with the distributed power supply can be well solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of distribution network planning, and in particular relates to a method for predicting load characteristics of a distribution network including distributed power sources. Background technique [0002] Medium- and long-term load forecasting is the premise and foundation of distribution network planning. Distribution network planning must predict both the total amount of future load and the location of future load growth, that is, medium- and long-term load forecasting and spatial load forecasting. Reasonable distribution network planning has important guiding significance. [0003] With a large number of distributed power sources connected to the distribution network, the load forecasting work of the distribution network will face unprecedented challenges. The output of distributed power sources such as wind turbines and photovoltaic power generation is affected by the climate, which has the characteristics ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

When considering the impact of distributed power generation on planning, distribution network planners often simply regard it as a "negative load" and consider its impact on the maximum load of the power grid, without considering the time characteristics of distributed power output. have a great impact on the accuracy of load forecasting results

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