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Wind power real-time high precision prediction method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

A wind power prediction, neuro-fuzzy technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as unknown power supply available

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-09-23
NORTHEAST DIANLI UNIVERSITY
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  • Abstract
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the wind is random and intermittent, and the available power supply it generates is unknown, which will bring severe challenges to the power system when a large amount of wind power is allowed to be connected to the grid

Method used

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  • Wind power real-time high precision prediction method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
  • Wind power real-time high precision prediction method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
  • Wind power real-time high precision prediction method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

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Embodiment 1

[0047] The wind power real-time high-precision prediction method based on the self-adaptive neuro-fuzzy reasoning system of the present invention is characterized in that it comprises the following steps:

[0048] (1) Data collection and processing

[0049] From August 1st to August 30th, 2012 in Xiangyang Wind Farm, the wind power of No. 91 wind turbine and the total wind power of 267 wind turbines in the whole field were collected at a data sampling interval of 15 minutes. The membership function is a Gaussian function; the number is two; the number of training times is 2000; the training samples are selected from the actual value of wind power from August 5th to August 7th;

[0050] (2) Establish a multi-step rolling forecast mode

[0051] When forecasting wind power, the actual value of wind power P(t-nΔt) at all times in the modeling domain is generally known, n=0, 1, 2...N, so the number of historical data in the modeling domain is N+1 , the wind power to be predicted ...

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Abstract

A wind power real-time high precision prediction method based on an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system belongs to the wind power technical field. The method is characterized in that firstly, an experiment scheme is designed to collect and process data, establishing a multi-step rolling prediction mode, then constructing a wind power prediction model based on an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and finally evaluating the prediction precision. In this way, a wind power multi-step rolling real-time prediction method that is based on data, has a self-learning capability and can meet the requirement of real-time prediction precision is achieved. The wind power real-time high precision prediction method based on an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system provides a prediction result that is quite close to a real value and is effective, is high in prediction precision, and is highly operable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a real-time and high-precision prediction method of wind power power based on an adaptive neuro-fuzzy reasoning system, which belongs to the technical field of wind power. Background technique [0002] Wind energy is free, so people hope that the electricity generated by wind energy can be accepted by the grid as much as possible. However, the wind is random and intermittent, and the available power supply it generates is unknown, which will bring severe challenges to the power system when a large amount of wind power is allowed to be connected to the grid. Wind power forecasting plays an important role in addressing these challenges. The power system must have strong dispatching capabilities to deal with the power fluctuations caused by newly added wind turbines, so as to achieve continuous improvement of wind power penetration. Therefore, in the period of intense development of new energy, short-term wind power forecasting ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 杨茂齐玥
Owner NORTHEAST DIANLI UNIVERSITY
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