Controller workload prediction method and system based on multiple regression model

A workload and forecasting method technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of less quantitative research, stay in, not comprehensive, comprehensive, etc., achieve strong operability, effective forecasting, and improve management level Effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-12-30
CHENGDU CIVIL AVIATION AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SCI & TECH +1
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0009] At present, the relevant research content of controller workload prediction mainly has the following deficiencies: (1) In terms of research methods, there are more qualitative research and less quantitative research, resulting in insufficient objectivity
(2) In terms of research indicators, most of them start with the indicators that directly reflect the controller's workload, and less consider the influencing factor indicators of the controller's workload. The index dimension is relatively single, not comprehensive and comprehensive, and the prediction reliability is not high
(3) In terms of applicability, the existing research is still at the stage of laboratory research, mainly serving strategic decision-making, while there are few actual engineering applications for air traffic control units
Due to the above deficiencies, the current domestic and foreign research on controller workload prediction is lacking in objectivity, comprehensiveness, comprehensiveness, accuracy and operability.

Method used

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  • Controller workload prediction method and system based on multiple regression model
  • Controller workload prediction method and system based on multiple regression model
  • Controller workload prediction method and system based on multiple regression model

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Experimental program
Comparison scheme
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Embodiment 1

[0063] like figure 1 As shown, the controller workload prediction method disclosed in this embodiment includes steps:

[0064] S1. Select the air traffic flow situation index in the control sector, and use the controller workload index corresponding to the relevant index as the sample data into the multiple linear regression model and the multiple nonlinear regression model for fitting; the multiple linear regression model and the multiple nonlinear regression model are obtained Regression model parameter estimates, establishment of heavy linear regression models and multiple nonlinear regression models;

[0065] S2, through the fitting degree, significance and error analysis, compare the linear regression model and the nonlinear regression model, and determine the controller workload prediction multiple regression model;

[0066] S3. Import the real-time data of air traffic flow situation indicators in the control sector into the multiple regression model of controller workl...

Embodiment 2

[0074] This embodiment discloses a system architecture, which can be used to implement the prediction method described in the present invention as the implementation platform of the controller workload forecasting system of the present invention.

[0075] The structure of the controller workload prediction system in this embodiment is as follows: image 3 shown. The air traffic controller workload prediction system mainly includes a set of control sector traffic flow situation detection database and three functional modules of data connection and index collection. The traffic flow situation detection database in the control sector classifies and saves the air traffic flow situation data (including radar comprehensive track data, telegram data, VHF recording data, etc.) collected by each information collection point, and provides data basis for controller workload prediction .

[0076] Figure 4 , 5 A network structure and a corresponding functional module structure for rea...

Embodiment 3

[0078] This embodiment discloses a control operation data collection scheme, including but not limited to the collection of controller workload prediction related indicators, controller workload prediction sample data and control sector air traffic flow situation index prediction data collection.

[0079] In this study, the controller workload index is used as the dependent variable, denoted as Y. There are a total of 15 air traffic flow situation indicators in the control sector, and the independent variable X is recorded as:

[0080] X={X i ,i=1,2,...,15} (Formula 3.1)

[0081] Among them, the sector accessibility detection index is {X 1 ,X 2 ,X 3 ,X 4}, which represent sector flow, sector mileage, sector voyage time and sector traffic flow density respectively; the sector complexity detection index is {X 5 ,X 6 ,X 7 ,X 8}, which respectively represent the number of climbs of aircraft in the sector, the number of descents of aircraft in the sector, the number of spe...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a controller workload prediction method and system. The controller workload prediction method comprises the steps of building a multiple regression model according to controller workload prediction related indexes and controller workload prediction sample data; importing air traffic flow situation index prediction data in a controlled sector into the multiple regression model, and obtaining a controller workload prediction result. According to the controller workload prediction method and system, the air traffic flow situation multidimensional indexes which influence controller workload are considered completely and comprehensively, and thereby effective prediction for controller workload is achieved. The designed controller workload prediction system can be applied to an engineering unit and has great operability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the monitoring field, in particular to a controller workload prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] With the development of the air transport industry, in order to ensure the safety and order of various flight activities, the air traffic control service came into being and was continuously developed and improved until it became mature in the 1980s. The main content of modern air traffic control services is: Air traffic controllers (referred to as "controllers", the same below) rely on modern communication, navigation, and surveillance technologies to manage and control aircraft under their jurisdiction, coordinate and guide their movement paths and Mode to prevent collisions between aircraft in the air and collisions between aircraft and obstacles in the maneuvering area of ​​the airport, and maintain and speed up the orderly flow of air traffic. The executor of this task is the air traffic controller (abb...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/30
Inventor 裴锡凯张建平丁鹏欣程延松周自力吴振亚
Owner CHENGDU CIVIL AVIATION AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SCI & TECH
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