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Zinc demand prediction method based on S-shaped model

A technology of demand forecasting and model, applied in forecasting, data processing application, calculation, etc., can solve the problem of zinc demand forecasting inapplicable

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-11-09
INST OF MINERAL RESOURCES CHINESE ACAD OF GEOLOGICAL SCI
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Problems solved by technology

However, this method is not suitable for zinc demand forecasting

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  • Zinc demand prediction method based on S-shaped model
  • Zinc demand prediction method based on S-shaped model
  • Zinc demand prediction method based on S-shaped model

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Embodiment Construction

[0126] In the following, the technical solutions of the present invention and the technical effects that can be achieved will be described in detail in conjunction with specific embodiments of the present invention.

[0127] figure 1 Shown is the flow chart of the method for forecasting zinc demand based on the "S" model of the present invention. As shown in the figure, the flow chart of the method for forecasting zinc demand based on the "S" model of the present invention is mainly based on the " Based on the S”-shaped theoretical model, with per capita GDP as the independent variable, using the hyperbolic tangent mathematical method and combining historical data of different countries or regions to establish a zinc demand forecasting equation, so as to achieve accurate quantification of the medium and long-term zinc demand of the country, region or industry Forecasting, which includes the following steps:

[0128] S1: Collect historical data on per capita zinc consumption a...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a zinc demand prediction method based on an S-shaped model. A zinc demand prediction equation is established based on the S-shaped physical model of per capita zinc consumption and per capita GDP by taking the per capita GDP as an independent variable by use of a hyperbolic tangent mathematical method through combination with historical data of different countries or regions so that accurate quantitative prediction of medium and long-term demands of zinc of the counties, the regions or industries is realized. The method comprises the following steps: S1, constructing an S-shaped curve; S2, constructing the S-shaped physical model; S3, constructing an S theoretical model; S4, constructing an S mathematic model; S5, predicting a GDP value; and S5, predicating a zinc demand result. The zinc demand prediction method based on the S-shaped model, provided by the invention solves the problem of too large prediction deviation generally existing in conventional zinc demand prediction is fundamentally solved, and the prediction reliability and confidence are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a quantitative zinc demand forecasting method and a method for constructing its forecasting equation, in particular to a method based on an "S"-shaped physical model between per capita GDP and per capita zinc consumption, using a hyperbolic tangent function mathematical method to construct its forecasting equation method and a zinc demand forecasting method based on the forecasting equation. Background technique [0002] At present, zinc demand forecasting methods can be generally divided into two categories: qualitative forecasting and quantitative forecasting. [0003] Qualitative forecasting usually gives the future zinc demand based on subjective experience, and the most representative ones are the Delphi method and the analogy method. The Delphi method judges and determines the future energy demand through expert scoring and assignment; the analogy method extracts zinc consumption indicators at the same developmen...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04
Inventor 王高尚代涛王安建
Owner INST OF MINERAL RESOURCES CHINESE ACAD OF GEOLOGICAL SCI
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