Power consumption checking method based on business expanding installation data
A technology for expanding equipment and electricity consumption, applied in data processing applications, instruments, resources, etc., can solve the problems of the normal operation of the power maintenance power system, the inability to judge whether the electricity users are using electricity normally, and the inability to obtain it.
Inactive Publication Date: 2017-02-22
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY +1
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Problems solved by technology
[0004] If the accurate prediction value cannot be obtained, it is impossible to judge whether the electricity user is using electricity normally, whether there is electricity stealing or leakage, which will bring great harm to the power maintenance and the normal operation of the power system.
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[0040] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.
[0041] Characteristics:
[0042] 1) The number of new users and the capacity of new electrical equipment. The number of new additions and its proportion to the total number indicate the growth momentum of the electricity sales market in the future, and also reflect the effect of the marketing department's market development to a certain extent.
[0043] Indicator 1: Percentage of new additions UR = new additions / total new additions (1.1)
[0044] Indicator 2: New capacity growth rate CR = new equipment capacity / total capacity (1.2)
[0045] Indicator 3: Newly reduced capacity growth rate DR = newly reduced equipment capacity / total capacity (1.3)
[0046] Indicator 4: The month-on-month growth rate of new capacity CGR = (new equipment capacity - last year's new equipment capacity) / last year's new equipment capacity (1.4)
[0047] Indicator 5: New...
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The invention discloses a power consumption checking method based on business expanding installation data, and the method comprises the following steps: determining a number of new users and the capacity of new equipment, and calculating the capacity increase rate and the quarter-on-quarter increase rate; building a power utilization trend through an S-shaped growth curve after business expanding installation, obtaining a business expanding power consumption growth curve through a principal component analysis method, taking an instantaneous growth rate as a base value, taking an inflection point as the basis, and carrying out the staged explanation of the curve; carrying out the transformation of power consumption and business expanding installation, carrying out the seasonal decomposition of the explanatory variables and dependent variables through a census X12 algorithm, and decomposing an original component into a trend circulation item (TC), a seasonal factor (SF) and a random item (IR); analyzing the correlation between the trend circulation items (TC) of two variables, and confirming the prediction value of power consumption after the seasonal factors (SF) are considered; comparing the actual power consumption of each user with the prediction value of the power consumption: judging that the user consumes power abnormally if the difference exceeds a threshold value, and marking the user.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for checking electricity consumption based on industry expansion report and installation data. Background technique [0002] Due to the influence of national policies, production costs, sales conditions, market prospects, and business expansion trends, it is impossible to make accurate predictions and judgments on the new capacity, electricity, and load of business expansion. Since business expansion and new installations take a long time, it is impossible to accurately grasp the release law of new capacity, the law of power growth point and when the power will reach the normal level, the impact of capacity growth on the province's power, etc. That is to say, the growth of the actual electricity sales of power grid companies often lags behind the growth of business expansion and installation, and the newly added installation capacity will not be 100% converted into the growth of electricity sales. Statistics on histor...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/06375G06Q50/06
Inventor 程婷婷刘勇超杜颖李军田刘宏国张春秋
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY