Reservoir adaptive scheduling method based on D-S evidence theory

Abstract

The invention provides a reservoir adaptive scheduling method based on the D-S evidence theory, which is characterized by including the following steps: S1, predicting the temperature and precipitation within a future research time through GCMs (Global Cycle Model) and a downscaling technology, taking the prediction result as the input predicted runoff of a hydrological model, and taking the runoff prediction results output by GCMs as multiple future climate change scenarios; S2, constituting a recognition framework with each potential climate change scenario as a focal element Theta in the D-S evidence theory; S3, defining corresponding basic probability assignment functions m1, m2 and m3; S4, synthesizing three evidences based on a modified D-S synthesis rule, and calculating the synthesis probability m123 of the scenarios; S5, letting the weight Alpha of each scenario be equal to a trust function; and S6, constructing a reservoir optimal scheduling model with the maximum weighted average of the average benefits over the years as an optimization objective, setting a linear scheduling function, and optimizing the parameters of the scheduling function through a simulated optimization approach to get an adaptive scheduling scheme.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reservoir dispatching, and in particular relates to a reservoir adaptive dispatching method based on D-S evidence theory. technical background [0002] Climate change has changed the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources and runoff characteristics, which may aggravate floods, droughts, and conflicts between supply and demand of water resources, and have an important impact on social and economic development. As an important engineering measure to effectively solve the allocation of water resources, reservoirs have functions and tasks such as flood control, power generation, water supply, and shipping. The non-engineering measure of reservoir regulation is the main way to realize the function of benefit and eliminate harm, and complete the redistribution of water resources in time and space. Under the condition of climate change, the original consistency condition no longer exists, and the operat...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, there are the following problems in the existing technology: (1) The current adaptive scheduling method is mainly aimed at a single climate change scenario, and there are great limitations in applicability, especially in the context of difficult to accurately predict climate change ; (2) Future climate change itself is an

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