A method for predicting the number of deaths in earthquake landslides and its application

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the death rate of earthquake landslide personnel and its application. The method firstly determines the death rate index r of earthquake landslide personnel for each kilometer grid unit in the research area di , r di It is determined according to the number of earthquake landslide hazard levels at the 90-meter scale in the kilometer grid, and then according to r di The number of earthquake landslide deaths in each kilometer grid unit can be obtained by using the value and the population of the kilometer grid unit. Finally, the summation of the earthquake landslide death numbers in each kilometer grid unit is carried out to realize the prediction of the earthquake landslide death toll in the entire study area. The present invention fully considers that there are differences in the spatial distribution of population and earthquake landslides, and the death toll is the result of the joint action of population distribution and landslide intensity in space, and decomposes the prediction objects into kilometer grid units with uniform shape and scale to avoid However, there is a large error between the estimated death toll and the actual number in the pre-earthquake disaster risk assessment and post-earthquake emergency rescue decision-making assessment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of earthquake landslides, and relates to a method for predicting the death toll of earthquake landslides in kilometer grid units based on the mortality index, and the prediction and forecast of the death toll of regional earthquake landslides and the risk of pre-earthquake landslide disasters by emergency command and decision-making after the earthquake Evaluation, specifically a method for predicting the number of deaths in earthquake landslides and its application. Background technique [0002] The assessment of the death of people caused by the earthquake is the key to the evaluation of the auxiliary decision-making suggestions of the emergency command after the earthquake and the assessment of the earthquake disaster risk before the earthquake. The difference in the estimated number of deaths in an earthquake emergency will lead to completely different emergency response levels, and lead to different emergency pro...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The current earthquake landslide risk assessment method can give the distribution of the earthquake landslide hazard level in the 90-meter grid in the study area, but it is still difficult to make an accurate assessment of whether the landslide occurred or not, and there is no high-precision population distribution in the study area. Therefore, it is impossible to effectively predict the number of deaths caused by earthquake landslides. forecast

Images