Heat-related health risk early warning method based on small spatial scale

A risk early warning and small-space technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as unconsidered regional vulnerability and resource allocation and use, and achieve the effect of reducing health risks and overcoming limitations

Active Publication Date: 2020-06-23
广东省公共卫生研究院 +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, these indices are used at a large spatial scale such as the city level, without considering regional vulnerability and resource allocation, which has certain limitations in the practical application of climate change adaptation; therefore, if

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  • Heat-related health risk early warning method based on small spatial scale

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[0042] The specific embodiments and examples of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The described specific embodiments are only used to explain the present invention, and are not intended to limit the specific embodiments of the present invention.

[0043] Such as figure 1 as shown, figure 1 It is a flowchart of an embodiment of the heat-related health risk early warning method based on a small spatial scale in the present invention. The heat-related health risk early warning method generally includes the following steps:

[0044] Step S210, data collection: collect small-scale death data 111 and meteorological data 112 in units of streets, and collect demographic data 113, social development data 114, economic development data 115, and environmental data in small-scale units at the same time 116 and other relevant indicators that affect vulnerability, and build a database of vulnerability indicators for eac...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a thermal correlation health risk early warning method based on a small spatial scale. The method includes: fitting a temperature-death exposure relationship of each small space region by utilizing a DLNM model and a Meta analysis two-stage analysis method; adjusting an exposure reaction relationship of a region with a relatively small daily mortality rate, screening key vulnerability indexes according to a random forest model, calculating a weight result, calculating a vulnerability index of a small space region, calculating a thermal risk index of the small space region in combination with a thermal exposure risk value, dividing health risk levels, and providing a temperature threshold for health risk early warning; the small space scale data of streets is combined; statistical analysis methods and machine learning methods such as a distribution lag nonlinear model and a random forest regression model are applied. Based on the influence of temperature on crowdhealth, various vulnerability indexes are comprehensively considered, a refined heat-related health risk early warning algorithm is established, implementation of high-temperature heat wave prevention and control measures is facilitated, and the health risk of high-temperature heat waves is effectively reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of heat-related health prediction and early warning methods, in particular to a heat-related health risk early warning method based on a small spatial scale. Background technique [0002] Global climate change, which is mainly characterized by temperature rise, has become an important environmental, social and public health problem, and is considered to be one of the greatest threats facing mankind in the 21st century; variation in meteorological factors will cause adverse health effects on the human body, extreme The impact of high temperature is particularly severe; therefore, timely and accurate early warning of heat-related health risks is an important task to prevent health hazards caused by extreme high temperatures. [0003] At present, high temperature and heat waves are defined according to the extreme high temperature value and its duration. There is no definition and classification based on the health effec...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06393G06Q10/0635Y02A90/10
Inventor 马文军胡建雄刘涛许燕君许晓君肖建鹏潘蔚娟
Owner 广东省公共卫生研究院
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