Heat-related health risk early warning method based on small spatial scale

Abstract

The invention discloses a thermal correlation health risk early warning method based on a small spatial scale. The method includes: fitting a temperature-death exposure relationship of each small space region by utilizing a DLNM model and a Meta analysis two-stage analysis method; adjusting an exposure reaction relationship of a region with a relatively small daily mortality rate, screening key vulnerability indexes according to a random forest model, calculating a weight result, calculating a vulnerability index of a small space region, calculating a thermal risk index of the small space region in combination with a thermal exposure risk value, dividing health risk levels, and providing a temperature threshold for health risk early warning; the small space scale data of streets is combined; statistical analysis methods and machine learning methods such as a distribution lag nonlinear model and a random forest regression model are applied. Based on the influence of temperature on crowdhealth, various vulnerability indexes are comprehensively considered, a refined heat-related health risk early warning algorithm is established, implementation of high-temperature heat wave prevention and control measures is facilitated, and the health risk of high-temperature heat waves is effectively reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of heat-related health prediction and early warning methods, in particular to a heat-related health risk early warning method based on a small spatial scale. Background technique [0002] Global climate change, which is mainly characterized by temperature rise, has become an important environmental, social and public health problem, and is considered to be one of the greatest threats facing mankind in the 21st century; variation in meteorological factors will cause adverse health effects on the human body, extreme The impact of high temperature is particularly severe; therefore, timely and accurate early warning of heat-related health risks is an important task to prevent health hazards caused by extreme high temperatures. [0003] At present, high temperature and heat waves are defined according to the extreme high temperature value and its duration. There is no definition and classification based on the health effec...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, these indices are used at a large spatial scale such as the city level, without considering regional vulnerability and resource allocation, which has certain limitations in the practical application of climate change adaptation; therefore, if Establishing a high temperature early warning method at a finer spatial scale, such as the street level, will facilitate the implementation of high temperature and heat wave prevention and control measures, and can effectively reduce heat-related health risks

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