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Probabilistic forecasting method and probabilistic forecasting device for short-term load

A probabilistic forecasting, short-term load technology, applied in forecasting, character and pattern recognition, instruments, etc., can solve the problem of ignoring the importance of probabilistic forecasting

Active Publication Date: 2022-07-01
TSINGHUA UNIV
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In recent years, the methods of hierarchical forecasting and integrated forecasting tend to focus on point forecasting, while ignoring the importance of probabilistic forecasting

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  • Probabilistic forecasting method and probabilistic forecasting device for short-term load
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  • Probabilistic forecasting method and probabilistic forecasting device for short-term load

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Embodiment Construction

[0043] The following describes in detail the embodiments of the present invention, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals refer to the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions throughout. The embodiments described below with reference to the accompanying drawings are exemplary, and are intended to explain the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the present invention.

[0044] The method for probabilistic prediction of short-term load, the apparatus for probabilistic prediction of short-term load, an electronic device, and a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium according to embodiments of the present invention are described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0045] figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for probabilistic prediction of short-term load according to an embodiment of the present invention. In the embodiment of...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term load probability prediction method and probability prediction device. The method includes: dividing the historical load data recorded by all user smart meters in a to-be-predicted area into a training set, an integrated set and a to-be-predicted set; Perform relevant calculations on the historical load data to obtain the division results of users under a number of different clustering numbers; perform relevant training on each user group after clustering according to the division results, so as to obtain multiple data of the overall load of the area to be predicted. The prediction model of the probability prediction result; according to the historical load data, each prediction model and the real overall load value in the integration set, the integrated load probability prediction model of the area to be predicted is obtained; according to the load probability prediction model of the area to be predicted Probabilistic forecast of load. The probability prediction method of the present invention can finely utilize the historical load data of the user's smart meter to improve the accuracy of the load probability prediction in the area to be predicted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power load forecasting, in particular to a short-term load probabilistic forecasting method and a probabilistic forecasting device. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the popularity of smart meters on the user side has gradually increased. When power grid companies make regional load forecasts, they can rely on smart meter data to obtain high-frequency and high-resolution user load data. Generally speaking, the load of an area is usually composed of hundreds or thousands of user loads, and the user load recorded by the smart meter will help to improve the accuracy of the overall load prediction of the area. Load forecasting in the traditional sense mainly trains a single model by recording the changes in the overall load of the region and then constructing the corresponding input features. Considering the use of smart meter data to refine the prediction of the overall load of the region, a bo...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06N3/04G06K9/62G06F17/16G06F17/18G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06F17/16G06F17/18G06Q50/06G06N3/047G06F18/22G06F18/23213
Inventor 陈启鑫郑可迪王毅顾宇轩郭鸿业康重庆夏清
Owner TSINGHUA UNIV