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Offshore platform facility collapse risk assessment method and device

An offshore platform and risk assessment technology, applied in the field of risk assessment, can solve problems such as uncertainty, difficulty in accurate failure probability to the failure probability density function, and unclear interaction, so as to achieve reasonable estimation, reduce objectivity and Effects of Expert Judgment on Subjective Inexhaustibility Questions

Pending Publication Date: 2021-01-01
INNER MONGOLIA UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

Due to the complex system structure of offshore platform facilities, various failure modes, and the interaction of various failure mechanisms among system components with unclear failure mechanisms, it is very difficult to obtain the accurate failure probability or failure probability density function of each bottom event in the fault tree.
In order to simplify the difficulty of model modeling, the probability of occurrence of bottom-end events in actual engineering is mostly determined by expert judgment; however, due to limited information, system physical variability, insufficient cognition, and expert level, the use of expert judgment has great uncertainty

Method used

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  • Offshore platform facility collapse risk assessment method and device
  • Offshore platform facility collapse risk assessment method and device
  • Offshore platform facility collapse risk assessment method and device

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Embodiment Construction

[0040] In order to better understand the above purpose, features and advantages of the present application, the solution of the present application will be further described below. It should be noted that, in the case of no conflict, the embodiments of the present application and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other.

[0041] In the following description, a lot of specific details have been set forth in order to fully understand the present application, but the present application can also be implemented in other ways different from those described here; obviously, the embodiments in the description are only a part of the present application, and Not all examples.

[0042] The embodiment of the present application provides a method for assessing the collapse risk of offshore platform facilities, which implements the assessment of the collapse risk of offshore platform facilities based on fault tree and fuzzy theory.

[0043] figure 1 It is a flow c...

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Abstract

The invention provides an offshore platform facility collapse risk assessment method and device, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a collapse fault tree based on the obtained offshore platform facility fault information; according to a fuzzy theory, calculating a fuzzy failure probability of each bottom event in the collapse fault tree based on an evaluation value of each bottom event occurrence possibility in the collapse fault tree by an expert; and calculating the fuzzy failure probability of offshore platform facility collapse according to the fuzzy failure probability of the bottom event and the collapse fault tree. According to the method, the fuzzy failure probability of the bottom event is calculated on the basis of the fuzzy theory and the evaluation value of the expert, and the collapse fuzzy estimation probability is calculated by utilizing the fuzzy probability, so that the problems of objective inadequacy and subjective inadequacy of expert judgment caused by insufficient effective balance factors are reduced, and the estimation is more reasonable.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a method and device for assessing the collapse risk of offshore platform facilities. Background technique [0002] Due to the long-term corrosion of seawater, highly corrosive rainwater, and the impact of sea wind and waves, offshore platform facilities have high temperature, high pressure and high corrosion characteristics in the production process, and are subject to stress fatigue and other problems caused by their own structure, and major problems such as structural collapse may occur. ACCIDENT. In order to reduce structural collapse and other major accidents as much as possible, and to find out the possible causes of accidents from the source and prevent them in advance, it is necessary to analyze the reasons for the failure of offshore platform facilities. [0003] At present, the existing methods for safety assessment of offshore platforms include the fa...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06N5/04G06N7/00
CPCG06Q10/0635G06N5/048G06N7/01
Inventor 姜广君杨建平郭世杰陈红霞孙洪华
Owner INNER MONGOLIA UNIV OF TECH
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