3 results about "Fuzzy probability" patented technology

This invention discloses a smart park load forecasting method integrating seasonal and solar term features, comprising: generating a feature input vector and a meteorological-solar term deviation vector based on current input data; a trained weight calculation module outputting a weight vector and a bidirectional dynamic hidden state vector based on these two vectors; a trained gating network outputting a fuzzy probability distribution based on the weight vector and the bidirectional dynamic hidden state vector; and a trained fuzzy boundary hybrid expert network outputting park load forecast data for a preset future time period based on the weight vector, the bidirectional dynamic hidden state vector, and the fuzzy probability distribution. The expert network includes multiple trained seasonal and solar term sub-networks, each of which uses the knowledge learned during training to predict park load data. This invention can deeply capture the nonlinear spatiotemporal relationships of multi-source data, significantly improving the prediction accuracy, convergence speed, and robustness of the model under complex and variable climate conditions.

The application discloses a fuzzy path selection method of a routing protocol in a power internet of things, and comprises the following steps: calculating the covering time between system input nodes and the system utilization, and respectively obtaining the node covering time and the system utilization language state membership function; formulating a language rule according to the step, and obtaining the relationship between the input parameter node covering time, the system utilization language state and the output fuzzy probability language state; the language rule of all input and output functions is defined as a language fuzzy limit language; calculating the system output fuzzy probability, and obtaining the fuzzy probability language state membership function; calculating the sum of the cost between each node of each route according to the fuzzy probability; comparing the route cost of multiple routes, and selecting the route with the minimum cost. Compared with the prior art, the application has the beneficial effects that the technology can improve the routing selection efficiency of the power internet of things terminal device, and reduce the service data transmission delay.

This invention discloses a dynamic risk assessment method and system for storage tanks, comprising the following steps: S1, identifying potential risk sources of the storage tank, taking tank leakage as the assessment object; S2, inputting the potential risk sources and their possible consequences into a fuzzy Bow-Tie model to form a preliminary qualitative analysis of consequences and measures; S3, transforming the Bow-Tie model into a Bayesian network based on mapping relationships; S4, having experts score the corresponding risk sources and converting the scores into prior probabilities of the root nodes of the Bayesian network, determining the weights of each expert using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and converting the expert evaluation results into fuzzy probabilities to obtain the prior probabilities of the root nodes and determine the conditional probability tables of other nodes; S5, calculating the posterior probabilities and analyzing and determining the priority relationships of failure modes; S6, providing corresponding risk control measures based on the priority judgment results. This method realizes management from risk source identification to control measure output, overcoming the problem that traditional methods cannot cope with complex dynamic environments.