The invention request to protect an information propagation prediction model based on the chaotic theory, and belongs to the information propagation analysis field; the model is formed by the flowing steps: obtaining true data sources from social networks, building a user-static multidimensional forwarding factor attribute mechanism, predicting user dynamic behavior characteristics, and building a hot topic propagation model. The following steps are listed: firstly, obtaining related data, and obtaining a data set; secondarily, extracting various behavior characteristics affecting the user from the user, information and user relation angles, and quantifying the information propagation probability; then, using the chaotic theory to predict user dynamic behaviors; finally, combining information diffusion and infectious disease propagating similar propagation mechanisms on the basis of a conventional infectious disease SIR model, fully considering the dynamic behavior characteristics, and improving so as to obtain the information propagation model based on the chaotic theory and user behaviors. The method and model can effectively represent the information propagation dynamic trends in the social networks, thus finding the important influence factors in information propagation.