Heat supply load interval prediction method based on chaos theory

Abstract

A heat load area prediction method based on chaos theory is provided, which relats to a prediction method of heat load. The invention solves the problems that the prediction method of the heat load in prior art depends on a plurality of physical data and weather forecast information, point prediction does not satisfy the requirement of heating power schedule on reliability of load forecast, and the heat load area prediction method is lack of inherent regularity description. The method comprises: 1. state space reconstitution of heat load time sequence; 2. chaos recognition of the largest Lyapunov exponent; 3. span forecast of the largest Lyapunov exponent. The invention is directly applied on heat supply energy saving reconstruction, heating power schedule and heating power station control.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for forecasting heating load. Background technique [0002] The main problems in the prior art are: 1. The existing heat load forecasting method lacks the description of the internal regularity of the heat load. At present, the heating load forecasting methods adopted at home and abroad are mostly independent or combined use of the following methods: time series, neural network, wavelet analysis, support vector machine and so on. Looking at the research status at home and abroad, the "mathematical" tendency of heating load forecast is increasing day by day, and the research on the internal change regularity of heating load is not enough. Although these models and methods are advanced, the forecasting methods are complicated and difficult to master, resulting in It cannot be flexibly applied in practice. 2. The existing heat supply load forecasting methods rely on a large amount of physical data and weather forecast i...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problem that the existing heat supply load forecasting method relies on a large amount of physical data and weather forecast information, and many point forecasts cannot meet the requirements of thermal dispatching for the reliability of load forecasting, and the existing heat supply load forecast The method lacks the problem of describing the internal regularity of the heat load, and the present invention provides a heating load interval forecasting method based on chaos theory

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